GOLD | SILVER | COPPER | CRUDE Commodity Technical Analysis

GOLD
Gold retreated overnight to open at 1292.50/1293.50. It climbed to a high of 1299.50/1300.5 on concerns of tougher sanctions on Russia by the West despite a decline in initial jobless claims in the U.S. The metal then declined to a six-week low of 1292.00/1293.00 on dollar strength and speculation that U.S. interest rates will rise sooner than expected. Thereafter, it consolidated to close the day at 1293.50/1294.50.
Gold ended the session at 1294, closing below the 200 day MA at 1296 as it approaches the 50% Fibo retracement level (1287.45) of the 2014 rally to mid-March. Subsequent downside levels include the 100 day MA at 1272 and the 61.8% Fibo retracement level at 1262.70. Resistance is expected at 1308 the March 24th close.
The Labor Department said the number of people who filed for initial jobless benefits in the U.S. last week declined by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 311,000 from the previous week’s revised total of 321,000. Analysts had expected jobless claims to rise by 4,000.
The upbeat data added to hopes that the slowdown in economic activity seen at the start of the year would be temporary.
Also Thursday, the National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index dropped by a seasonally adjusted 0.8% last month, disappointing expectations for a 0.3% gain.
SILVER
Silver moved lower overnight to open at 19.64/19.69. After a brief high at 19.74/19.79, it declined to a low of 19.60/19.65, prior to concluding the session at 19.70/19.75.
Silver closed at 19.73. The bearish trend in silver remains intact as the decline approaches the December 31st low at 18.8266. There are no key support levels ahead of the December 31st low.
The gold silver ratio has formed an engulfing bearish reversal; closing at 65.56, below yesterday’s open despite initially trading on an upswing. The upward sloping resistance trend line from the December and February highs has held, highlighting a challenge to further gains. Looking to the downside, the next key levels of support would be expected at 64.50 and 63.80.
COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery rose to a session high of $2.986 a pound, before trimming gains to last trade at $2.978 during European morning hours, up 0.4%, or 1.2 cents.
Copper lost 1.33%, or 4.0 cents, on Wednesday to settle at $2.965 a pound.

Futures were likely to find support at $2.939 a pound, the low from March 25 and resistance at $3.045 a pound, the high from March 25.
The U.S. is to publish final data on fourth quarter economic growth, as well as the weekly report on initial jobless claims and private sector data on pending home sales.
Upbeat U.S. durable goods orders figures on Wednesday indicated that economy is gaining momentum in the wake of a weather-induced slowdown.
Meanwhile, in China, data released earlier showed mainland China industrial profits increased 9.4% in the two months through February year-on-year, compared with 17% growth a year earlier.
The industrial metal fell to $2.877 a pound on March 19, the lowest since July 2010, amid growing concerns over the health of China’s economy.
The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.
Copper prices regained strength on Thursday, as investors looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy..
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for delivery in May traded at $101.35 a barrel, up 0.07%. On Thursday it reached the highest settlement price since March 7, after hitting an overnight session low of $100.04 a barrel and a high of $101.69 a barrel.

Brent oil on the ICE futures exchange rose 80 cents, or 0.8%, to $107.83 a barrel on Thursday, its highest level since March 14.
Oil prices shot up after the Commerce Department reported earlier that U.S. gross domestic product was revised up to 2.6% in the final three months of 2013, up from a preliminary estimate of 2.4%. Market expectations had been for an upward revision to 2.7%.
Still, the report showed that personal spending was revised up to 3.3% from 2.6% initially, the fastest rate of growth in three years, which drew applause from investors betting that sluggish economic indicators hitting the wire earlier this year were the result of rough winter weather that disrupted commerce and not due to an economic soft patch.
Separately, the Labor Department said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the U.S. last week declined by 10,000 to a 311,000 from the previous week’s revised total of 321,000.
Analysts were expecting jobless claims to rise by 4,000.
Also supporting both U.S. and European crude blends were concerns the U.S. and Europe may stiffen sanctions on crude-rich Russia and subsequently threaten global oil supply.
Crude oil prices gained slightly in Asia on Friday on a carryover from overnight better-than-expected U.S. economic growth and weekly jobless claims data.
Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1287	1279	1305	1315
SILVER	19.52	19.37	19.84	20.01
COPPER	3.0165	2.9965	3.0465	3.0565
CRUDE	100.30	99.33	101.97	102.67

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
6.00P.M	Core PCE Price Index m/m	0.1%	0.1%	MEDIUM
6.00P.M	Personal Spending m/m	0.4%	0.3%	MEDIUM
7.25P.M	Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment	79.9	80.6	MEDIUM
7.25P.M	Revised UoM Inflation Expectations	3.2%		LOW

Core PCE Price Index m/m

Source	Bureau of Economic Analysis (latest release)
Measures	Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends;
Next Release	May 1, 2014
FF Notes	Differs from Core CPI in that it only measures goods and services targeted towards and consumed by individuals. Prices are weighted according to total expenditure per item which gives important insights into consumer spending behavior. This is rumored to be the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation measure, but CPI is released about 15 days earlier and tends to garner most of the attention;
Acro Expand	Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), Consumer Price Index (CPI);
Source	Bureau of Economic Analysis (latest release)

Personal Spending m/m

Source	Bureau of Economic Analysis (latest release)
Measures	Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released quarterly, about 90 days after the quarter ends;
Next Release	Jun 25, 2014
FF Notes	While this is q/q data, it's reported in an annualized format (quarterly change x4). The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Preliminary release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart - Advance, Preliminary, and Final. The Advance release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact;
Why Traders Care	It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health;

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

Source	University of Michigan (latest release)
Measures	Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, usually on the last Friday of the current month;
Next Release	Apr 25, 2014
FF Notes	The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Preliminary release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are 2 versions of this data released about 15 days apart – Preliminary and Revised. The Preliminary release is the earliest and thus tends to have more impact;
Derived Via	Survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions;
Also Called	Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment;
Acro Expand	University of Michigan (UoM);

GOLD | SILVER | COPPER | CRUDE Technical Analysis

GOLD

Gold edged slightly higher overnight to open at 1313.50/1314.50, which was also the intraday high. Following the open it dipped to a low of 1300.25/1301.25 as the dollar strengthened and equities gained momentum following better-than-expected U.S. economic data that showed an increase in sales of durable goods. The slide in gold prices was also attributed to easing of tensions between Russia and the West, which suppressed demand for safe haven assets. The metal closed the day at 1302.50/1303.50.

Gold traded lower today, closing at 1302 and coming dangerously close to the 200-day moving average at 1296. A close below that level would be our stop-loss on our long-term bullish gold view. Resistance is at 1316/17, the high of the past two sessions.

Gold fell as encouraging U.S. manufacturing data reduced bullion’s appeal to institutional investors as a hedge against economic uncertainty

U.S. Federal Janet Yellen suggested interest rates could rise in the first half of 2015, raised the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

SPDR gold trust holding dropped by 1.80 tonnes i.e. 0.22% to 816.97 tonnes from 818.77 tonnes.

SILVER

Silver was mostly unchanged overnight, opening at 19.97/20.02. It briefly climbed to a high of 20.01/20.06 before retreating on the back of gold to a low of 19.73/19.78, prior to concluding the session below the $20 mark at 19.76/19.81.

Silver had a bearish close today, closing lower at 19.76. We are bearish silver, looking for a test of the base of the consolidation that has been in place since early December, around the 18.83 low.

The gold-silver ratio is trading higher today at 65.90. There is support at 65.02, the 76.4% retracement of the last downtrend in the ratio from 67.47 high to 57.09 low. Uptrend support comes in at 62.99. We are bullish the ratio, targeting a test of the double top in the 67.50 area.

Silver prices dropped after official data showed that U.S. orders for long lasting manufactured goods came in higher-than-forecast in February.

Prices has been under heavy selling pressure amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates sooner than expected.

The Commerce Department reported that U.S. durable goods orders rose 2.2% last month, snapping two months of declines and surpassing expectations for a 1% increase.

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery fell to a session low of $2.982 a pound, before trimming losses to last trade at $2.985 during European morning hours, down 0.68%, or 2.0 cents.

Copper rallied to $3.045 a pound on Tuesday, the most since March 11, before settling at $3.005 a pound, up 2.04%, or 6.0 cents.

Futures were likely to find support at $2.939 a pound, the low from March 25 and resistance at $3.045 a pound, the high from March 25.

The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders later in the session.

Data on Tuesday showed that U.S. consumer confidence improved more than expected in March. However, a separate report said that new home sales fell by the most in five months in February, indicating continued weakness in the housing sector.

Copper rallied on Tuesday amid growing hopes that China will unveil fresh stimulus measures to boost slowing economic growth.

Data released on Monday showed that Chinese manufacturing activity deteriorated for a third successive month in March.

The industrial metal fell to $2.877 a pound on March 19, the lowest since July 2010, amid growing concerns over the health of China’s economy.

Copper prices fell from the previous session’s two-week high on Wednesday, as investors looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy.

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for delivery in May traded at $100.32 a barrel, up 0.05%, after hitting an overnight session low of $99.11 a barrel and a high of $100.13 a barrel.

Prices for the global Brent oil futures contract rose four cents to settle at $107.03 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange on Wednesday.

Overnight, oil prices firmed after the Commerce Department reported that U.S. durable goods orders rose 2.2% in February, wiping out two months of declines and surpassing expectations for a 1.0% increase.

Core durable goods orders, which exclude transportation items, inched up 0.2%, slightly below forecasts for a 0.3% gain.

The numbers fueled expectations for a more sustained pickup in the U.S. economy, which should hike demand for more fuel and energy.

Weekly inventory data gave oil prices a boost as well.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 6.6 million barrels in the week ended March 21, above expectations for an increase of 2.8 million barrels.

The EIA also reported a 1.3 million barrel draw at a delivery point in Cushing, Oklahoma, which was larger expected and eclipsed the otherwise bearish 6.6 million-barrel build.

Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 382.5 million barrels as of last week.

Crude oil prices edged slightly higher in Asia on Thursday from a morning drop that followed overnight gains on better-than-expected reports on U.S. durable goods and oil inventories.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1296	1288	1314	1324
SILVER	19.67	19.59	20.08	20.16
COPPER	2.9930	2.9755	3.0380	3.0830
CRUDE	99.42	98.58	100.78	101.30

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
6.00P.M	Unemployment Claims	320k	326k	STRONG
6.00P.M	FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks	—	—	MEDIUM
6.00P.M	Final GDP q/q	2.4%	2.7%	MEDIUM
7.30P.M	Pending Home Sales m/m	0.1%	0.1%	STRONG

Unemployment Claims

Source	Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures	The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
Usual Effect	Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Apr 3, 2014
FF Notes	This is the nation’s earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week – there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;
Why Traders Care	Although it’s generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country’s monetary policy;
Also Called	Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;

Final GDP q/q

Source	Bureau of Economic Analysis (latest release)
Measures	Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released quarterly, about 90 days after the quarter ends;
Next Release	Jun 25, 2014
FF Notes	While this is q/q data, it’s reported in an annualized format (quarterly change x4). The ‘Previous’ listed is the ‘Actual’ from the Preliminary release and therefore the ‘History’ data will appear unconnected. There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart – Advance, Preliminary, and Final. The Advance release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact;
Why Traders Care	It’s the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health;

Pending Home Sales m/m

Source	National Association of Realtors (latest release)
Measures	Change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 28 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 28, 2014
FF Notes	This data is released about a week later than Existing Home Sales, but it’s more forward-looking as a contract is signed several weeks before the home is counted as sold;
Why Traders Care	It’s a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, renovations are done by the new owners, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction;
Also Called	Pending Resales;
Source	National Association of Realtors (latest release)

COMEX Technical Analysis Report

GOLD

Gold spiked overnight as investors awaited news on possible sanctions against Russia after Crimea voted to leave the Ukraine. The move however was short lived and the metal quickly retreated to open virtually unchanged at 1377.50/1378.50. Sideways trade throughout the day until selling interest emerged as the dollar started to recovered, taking the metal to a low of 1369.25/1370.25 prior to concluding the session at 1372.00/1373.00.

Gold had a bearish day today, making a new intraday high but then closing lower at 1372; a potential reversal warning. RSI is showing bearish divergence, having failed to make a new high on the new price high. While the longer-term uptrend still looks healthy, gold may face a test of the uptrend support which currently comes in at 1339. There should also be support from the top of the previous range, at 1355. Resistance is at the intraday high in the 1383 area.

Gold prices fell as a sharp rally in U.S. equities triggered profit-taking after bullion briefly rose in last some sessions.

Investors’ appetite for risk diminished in view of increasing political tensions and economic troubles, which benefit gold.

SPDR gold trust holding dropped by 3.81 tonnes i.e. 0.47% to 812.78 tonnes from 816.59 tonnes.

SILVER

Silver moved higher and later retreated alongside gold overnight to open at 21.23/21.28. It quickly touched a low of 21.20/21.25 before proceeding to an intraday high of 21.40/21.45. The metal concluded the session at 21.24/21.29.

Silver closed lower today at 21.24. The metal has struggled to break out of its sideways range. Support is at the recent low of 20.61, with resistance at Friday’s high of 21.79. We remain neutral. 

Silver dropped tracking weak gold prices after Crimea voted to join Russia and leave Ukraine on Sunday with no widespread violence

Fed will most likely to announce another $10 billion cut to its bond-buying stimulus after solid U.S. retail sales and employment data

Investors remained cautious after Russia launched new military exercises near its border with Ukraine, showing no sign of backing down on plans to annex Crimea.

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery fell to a session low of $2.922 a pound, before trimming losses to last trade at $2.946 a pound during European morning hours, down 0.15%, or $0.004 cents.The May copper contract rose 0.94%, or 0.275 cents to settle at $2.950 a pound on Friday.Futures were likely to find support at $2.912 a pound, the low from March 14 and resistance at $2.977 a pound, the high from March 13.

Results showed that nearly 97% of voters in Crimea chose to break away from Ukraine and join Russia in a referendum deemed illegal by the European Union and the U.S.

Russia's lower house of parliament has stated that it will pass legislation allowing Crimea to join the nation in the "very near future."

U.S. President Barack Obama said Washington rejected the results of the referendum and warned that the U.S. was ready to impose sanctions on Moscow.

Western countries have threatened to ratchet up sanctions against Russia if it does not back down on annexing Crimea.

Copper has been under heavy selling pressure in recent sessions as growing concerns over the health of China’s economy dampened demand for growth-linked assets.

The industrial metal fell to $2.908 a pound on March 12, the lowest since July 2010.

The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

Elsewhere on the Comex, gold for April delivery was flat to trade at $1,378.90 a troy ounce, while silver for May delivery shed 0.15% to trade at $21.38 an ounce.

Market players looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy.

The U.S. is to publish data on manufacturing activity in the Empire State, as well as reports on industrial production and long term securities transactions.

Copper prices edged lower on Monday, as concerns escalated over Ukraine after results of Sunday's referendum showed voters in Crimea voting to join Russia..

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in May traded at $97.56 a barrel, down 0.07%, after hitting an overnight session low of $97.01 a barrel and a high of $98.91 a barrel.

Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange fell $1.97, or 1.8%, to $106.24 a barrel on Monday, its lowest settlement price since Feb. 4.

Investors continued to monitor events in Europe, after over 90% of Crimean voters on Sunday chose to break with Ukraine and join Russia. Crimea's Parliament on Monday formally asked to join the Russian Federation.

Sanctions followed as expected.

European Union foreign ministers imposed travel bans and asset freezes on 21 people they have linked to the push to have Crimea secede from Ukraine to be annexed by Russia. U.S. President Barack Obama also imposed sanctions on several Russian officials involved in the incursion of Crimea, which included freezing assets in the U.S.

Still, markets were expecting more widespread action from the West, and the response enticed investors away from oil by allaying fears the conflict could escalate and threaten energy supply from Russia.

Investors took hit-or-miss U.S. economic indicators in stride.

Data revealed earlier that U.S. industrial production rose 0.6% in February, exceeding expectations for a 0.1% gain. Industrial production in January was revised to a 0.2% fall from a previously estimated 0.3% decline.

Crude price were slightly weaker in Asian trade on Tuesday as relatively tame sanctions from the West on Russia, the world's top oil producer, over the annexation of the Crimean region of the Ukraine allayed concerns of any abrupt cutoff in supplies.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1368	1358	1388	1398
SILVER	21.13	20.89	21.64	21.91
COPPER	2.9865	2.9600	3.0300	3.0470
CRUDE	98.20	97.50	99.42	100.64

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
6.00P.M	Building Permits	0.94M	0.97M	STRONG
6.00P.M	Core CPI m/m	0.1%	0.1%	STRONG
6.00P.M	Housing Starts	0.88M	0.92M	MEDIUM
6.30P.M	TIC Long-Term Purchases	-45.9B	23.4B	MEDIUM

Building Permits

Source	Census Bureau(latest release)
Measures	Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 16, 2014
FF Notes	While this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12);
Why Traders Care	It's an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining a permit is among the first steps in constructing a new building;
Also Called	Residential Building Permits;
Source	Census Bureau(latest release)

Core CPI m/m

Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures	Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 16 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 15, 2014
FF Notes	Food and energy prices account for about a quarter of CPI, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The FOMC usually pays the most attention to the Core data - so do traders;
Why Traders Care	Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate;
Also Called	CPI Ex Food and Energy, Underlying CPI;
Acro Expand	Consumer Price Index (CPI), Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);

Housing Starts

Source	Census Bureau(latest release)
Measures	Annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the previous month;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Apr 16, 2014
FF Notes	While this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12). This data is slightly overshadowed by Building Permits because they are tightly correlated and a permit must be issued before a house can begin construction;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of economic health because building construction produces a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, jobs are created for the construction workers, subcontractors and inspectors are hired, and various construction services are purchased by the builder;

COMEX Daily Technical analysis Report

GOLD

Gold remained unchanged overnight to open at 1351.00/1352.00. It moved to a high of 1351.25/1352.25 before declining quickly to a low of 1326.50/1327.50 alongside crude futures as the dollar strengthened while U.S. 10-Year Treasury prices fell sharply following better-than-expected U.S. jobs data that supports further tapering of the Fed’s quantitative easing program. Thereafter, the metal recovered and traded within range to close the day at 1337.50/1338.50. 

Gold closed higher this week at 1338, the fifth straight up-week (though last week was essentially unchanged). However, we were unable to close substantially through the resistance level at 1337.83, which is the 61.8% retracement of the last downtrend from August to December 2013. Nevertheless, the uptrend is gaining momentum, with RSI (weekly) currently at 56.87. There is strong support from 1301 to 1308, which represents two 50% Fibonacci retracement levels: the 50% retracement of the long- last downtrend. After 1338, the next resistance level is 1361, the swing high from November 2013.

SILVER

Silver moved lower overnight to open at the session high of 21.38/21.43. It followed gold to a low of 20.74/20.79, prior to concluding the session at 20.89/20.94, which is close to the 100day moving average of 20.92.

Silver closed at 20.89, the second lower close in a row. There is a strong downtrend off the 2011 high that is acting as resistance; this currently comes in at 22.14. Support comes in at the bottom of the 2014 range at 19.00. Silver remains trapped within a sideways trend and we are currently neutral.

The gold-silver ratio is trading higher this week at the current 64.03 level. Support from the uptrend comes in at 61.54. We are bullish the ratio so long as the previous low at 59.92 holds, targeting a retracement back to the 2013 high of 67.47.

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery rose to a session high of $3.231 a pound, the most since February 26.

Copper prices last traded at $3.222 a pound during European morning hours, up 0.25%.

The May copper contract rallied 1.34% on Tuesday to settle at $3.214 a pound, as investor demand for riskier assets improved amid easing tensions over the political and military crisis between Russian and Ukraine.

Futures were likely to find support at $3.166 a pound, the low from March 4 and resistance at $3.239 a pound, the high from February 26.

China has set its gross domestic product growth target for 2014 at 7.5%, as widely expected, and will keep consumer inflation at 3.5%, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said on Wednesday.

The latest meeting of the legislature, the first to be overseen by President Xi Jinping and Premier Keqiang, comes amid lingering concerns over the health of the country’s economy.

The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

Copper prices rose to a one-week high on Wednesday, as China’s National People’s Congress annual meeting kicked off earlier in the day.

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in April US$102.37 a barrel, down 0.20%.

NYMEX crude for April settled up 1%, or $1.02 a barrel, to end Friday at $102.58 a barrel, falling $0.01 cent on the week.

Last week, an upbeat jobs report eased concerns over soft U.S. economic data seen in the past few months and underlined the view that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue to gradually taper its bond-buying program.

Gains were limited as concerns over Chinese domestic bond defaults underlined worries over the health of the Asian nation’s economy.

Data released over the weekend showed that Chinese exports collapsed 18.1% in February from a year earlier, disappointing expectations for a 6.8% increase.

Imports rose 10.1%, compared to forecasts for an 8% increase. According to customs data, China's February crude oil imports totaled 23.05 million metric tons, down 18.1% from January.

The significant decline in China’s exports led to a deficit of $22.98 billion last month, compared to a surplus of $31.86 billion in January. Analysts had expected a surplus of $14.5 billion in February.

A separate report showed that consumer price inflation in China rose 2% in February from a year earlier, in line with expectations, while producer price inflation declined 2%, compared to forecasts for a 1.9% drop.

The disappointing data highlighted concerns about slowing growth in the world's second biggest oil consumer.

In the week ahead, investors will be anticipating what will be closely-watched data on U.S. retail sales and consumer sentiment for further indications of the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy.

Crude oil prices eased in early Asian trade Monday, but remain supported by events in the Ukraine where tension over moves by neighboring Russia, the world's top oil producer, in the Crimean region have heightened concerns over supply..

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1325	1312	1352	1365
SILVER	20.59	20.28	21.37	21.84
COPPER	3.1115	3.0665	3.2365	3.3165
CRUDE	101.79	100.45	103.13	103.69

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
4.45P.M	FOMC Member Plosser Speaks			MEDIUM

FOMC Member Plosser Speaks

Description	Due to participate in a panel discussion titled "Monetary Policy and Banks and the Rise of Global Protectionism" at the Bank of France, in Paris;
Source	Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia(latest release)
Speaker	Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser;
Usual Effect	More hawkish than expected = Good for currency;
FF Notes	FOMC voting member 2008, 2011, and 2014;
Why Traders Care	Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;
Acro Expand	Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);

COMEX Daily Technical Ananlysis Report

GOLD
Gold moved higher overnight to open at 1346.00/1347.00 following mounting tensions between Russia and Ukraine. It dipped briefly to a low of 1344.25/1345.25 before surging to a four-month high of 1354.25/1355.25 as oil and safe-haven currencies reported gains while global equities retreated in face of the impending crisis in Ukraine. The metal closed the day at 1350.00/1351.00.

Gold had a very strong close today, ending the session at 1351 and clearly trading through resistance in the 1337 area. This opens up a full retracement to the 1433 high from August 2013. Resistance is at the most recent high of 1361 from October 2013. There is support from the uptrend which currently comes in at 1310.
Gold gained as escalating tensions between Ukraine and Russia bolstered demand for assets perceived to be relatively safe, hitting riskier investments such as equities.
A recent series of weak U.S. data that showed how much a cold snap has hurt activity in US, coupled with signs of a growth slowdown in China, boosted gold prices
A U.S. Non farm payrolls report on Friday should give investors a further opportunity to gauge the country’s growth.
SILVER
Silver advanced overnight to open at 21.43/21.48. It dropped to a low of 21.39/21.44 before following gold to a high of 21.63/21.68 and then coming under selling pressure to close near opening levels at 21.48/21.53.
Silver had a small move higher today at 21.48, but is still in consolidation mode. The price action since the big up-move on February 14th has been disappointing. Support is at the 200-daymoving average of 20.98, followed by the top of the previous range, 20.64. Resistance is at the recent high of 22.17.

The gold-silver ratio is trading higher at current 63.07. It has will be key. Confirmation of today’s down move would open up the moved back into its previous uptrend after a false break lower in February. Uptrend support comes in at 63.07. We are neutral.
Silver rallied tracking gold prices as the chance of military conflict in Ukraine mounted following Russia’s seizing of control of the Crimean peninsula.
The Commerce Department reported that personal spending rose 0.4% in January, above expectations for an increase of 0.1%.
Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 0.35% i.e. 35.89 tonnes to 10168.47 tonnes from 10204.36 tonnes.
COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery fell to a session low of $3.160 a pound, the weakest since November 21.
Copper prices last traded at $3.169 a pound during European morning hours, down 0.6%. The May copper contract lost 0.42% on Friday to settle at $3.187 a pound.

Futures were likely to find support at $3.146 a pound, the low from November 21 and resistance at $3.212 a pound, the high from February 28.
Geopolitical tensions mounted over the weekend after Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said Sunday that his country was “on the brink of disaster” after Russia’s parliament authorized President Vladimir Putin to use military force in Ukraine.
Ukraine has put its forces on combat readiness and U.S. President Barack Obama warned Russia not to intervene. The U.S. is also considering imposing sanctions, Secretary of State John Kerry said Sunday.
Meanwhile, lingering concerns over the health of China’s economy and a weakening Chinese Yuan dampened sentiment.
Copper futures tumbled to the lowest level since November on Monday, as tension in the Ukraine flared over the weekend and amid ongoing concerns over the health of China’s economy.
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in April traded at 104.82 a barrel, down 0.10%, after hitting an overnight session low of $103.36 a barrel and a high of $105.22 a barrel. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange rose $2.13, or 2%, to $111.20 a barrel.

Russia, the world’s biggest oil producer, sent troops into Crimea, a peninsula in Ukraine. The move stoked fears that there could be a disruption in supply in both crude and refined oil products.
Also supporting crude, the Commerce Department on Monday reported that personal spending rose 0.4% in January, above expectations for an increase of 0.1%. Personal spending for December was revised down to a 0.1% gain from a previously reported increase of 0.4%.
The report added that personal income rose 0.3%, beating expectations for a 0.2% increase, after a flat reading in December.
Meanwhile, the core PCE price index, which is stripped of food and energy items, inched up by a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in January, in line with expectations, after rising 0.1% in December.
The core PCE price index rose at an annualized rate of 1.2%, above forecasts for a 1.1% increase, after rising at a rate of 1.1% in December.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1335	1321	1360	1369
SILVER	21.28	21.12	21.64	21.84
COPPER	3.2030	3.1855	3.2425	3.2665
CRUDE	103.50	102.09	105.77	106.63

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
8.30P.M	IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism	44.9	45.6	LOW

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism

Source	TIPP(latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release	Apr 2, 2014
FF Notes	Above 50.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism;
Derived Via	Survey of about 900 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of economic conditions including six-month economic outlook, personal financial outlook, and confidence in federal economic policies;
Also Called	IBD/TIPP Consumer Confidence;
Acro Expand	Investor’s Business Daily (IBD), Techno Metrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP);

COMEX Report: Technical Analysis Outlook for 30 Jan

GOLD

Gold moved higher overnight to open at 1264.00/1265.00. It touched a high of 1268.50/1269.50 generating “safe haven” interest following the ongoing financial crisis in emerging markets, particularly in Argentina, which dragged global equities lower. The metal then dropped to a low of 1261.00/1262.00 as investors geared up for the Fed’s policy statement, before finally closing the session at 1262.00/1263.00. Following the close, the metal traded within range despite the Fed announcement of a further $10 billion cut to bring its monthly bond purchases down to $65 billion.

Gold traded higher today, closing at 1263. Resistance sits at 1278-79, from the 38.2% retracement of the August to December 2013 downtrend, and from Monday’s high. Support is at the recent low of 1231. RSI has turned higher, and is testing resistance at 62 (currently at 60.33).

Gold gained as stock markets surrendered early gains to fall ahead of a policy statement from the Federal Reserve.

Fed said it would trim its bond purchases by another $10 billion as it stuck to a plan to wind down its extraordinary economic stimulus

SPDR gold trust holding gained by 2.10 tonnes i.e. 0.27% to 792.56 tonnes from 790.46 tonnes.

Technical Levels

	S 1	S 2	R 1	R 2
GOLD	1250	1239	1272	1282

Commodity Contract: S2 S1 R1 R2 (Trading Tips)

SILVER

Silver edged higher overnight to open at 19.70/19.75. After posting a high of 19.95/20.00, it declined steadily to close at the session low of 19.54/19.59.

Silver is also trading higher at 19.59. Silver continues to be trapped within a sideways range, with the range high being 20.64, and the range low being 18.84. There is also a downtrend on the daily chart which comes in at 20.17. 

The gold-silver ratio is trading lower today at current 64.15. This is the first lower close after six sessions higher. Resistance is at the 67.56 high. There is strong support from the daily uptrend which currently comes in at 61.38.

Silver rose as ongoing turbulence in emerging markets boosted the safe haven appeal of the precious metal.

Prices earlier seen pressure as market sentiment improved after Turkey’s central bank announced aggressive rate hikes in an effort to stem the lira’s decline.

The U.S. Federal Reserve announced a further reduction in its bond-buying stimulus.

Technical Levels

	S 1	S 2	R 1	R 2
SILVER	19.35	19.14	19.86	20.17

Commodity Contract: S2 S1 R1 R2 (FREE Trail)

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery hit a session high of USD3.268 a pound, before trimming gains to trade at USD3.262 during European morning trade, up 0.3%.

The March copper contract fell to USD3.246 a pound on Tuesday, the lowest since December 9, before paring losses to settle at USD3.253 a pound, down 0.18%.

Copper futures were likely to find support at USD3.246 a pound, the low from January 28 and resistance at USD3.287 a pound, the high from January 27.

Appetite for riskier assets improved after Turkey’s central bank announced aggressive rate hikes overnight in an effort to stem the lira’s decline.

Turkey's central bank raised its overnight lending rate to 12% from 7.75% and its repurchase rate to 10% from 4.5% in its first emergency meeting since 2011.

The move eased concerns over emerging markets, following a broad based selloff last Friday, triggered by worries over the impact of reduction in Fed stimulus

and concerns over a possible slowdown in China.

Copper futures edged mildly higher on Wednesday, as global markets rebounded after an aggressive rate hike by the Turkish central bank and ahead of a policy announcement by the Federal Reserve later in the day.

Technical Levels

	S 1	S 2	R 1	R 2
COPPER	3.2286	3.2168	3.2606	3.2808

Commodity Contract: S2 S1 R1 R2 (Trading Signals)

CRUDE

On Wednesday, the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of USD97.38 a barrel and a high of USD97.59 a barrel. The March contract settled at USD97.42 a barrel.

Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD95.22 a barrel, Monday's low, and resistance at USD97.65 a barrel, Tuesday's high.

Meanwhile on Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 6.4 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 24, far beyond expectations for an increase of 2.3 million barrels, which sent prices falling by fanning fears the country remains awash in supply.

Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 357.6 million barrels as of last week.

The report also showed that total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 819,000 barrels compared to forecasts for a gain of 1.1 million barrels.

NYMEX crude oil prices rose during Asian trading hours on Thursday after Federal Reserve decided to cut USD10 billion from its USD75 billion monthly bond-buying program and U.S. supply data disappointed investors.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in March traded at USD97.62 a barrel during Asian trading, up 0.26%

Technical Levels

	S 1	S 2	R 1	R 2
CRUDE	96.53	95.71	97.96	98.57

Commodity Contract: S2 S1 R1 R2 (Free Signals)

Global Economic Data

TIME	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
7.00P.M	Advance GDP q/q	4.1%	3.3%	STRONG
7.00P.M	Unemployment Claims	326K	331K	STRONG
7.00P.M	Advance GDP Price Index q/q	2.0%	1.2%	MEDIUM
8.30P.M	Pending Home Sales m/m	0.2%	-0.1%	STRONG

Advance GDP q/q

Source	Bureau of Economic Analysis (latest release)
Measures	Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released quarterly, about 30 days after the quarter ends;
Next Release	Apr 30, 2014
FF Notes	While this is q/q data, it's reported in an annualized format (quarterly change x4). There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart – Advance, Preliminary, and Final. The Advance release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact;
Why Traders Care	It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health;
Also Called	GDP First Release, Estimated GDP;
Acro Expand	Gross Domestic Product (GDP);

Unemployment Claims

Source	Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures	The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
Usual Effect	Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Feb 6, 2014
FF Notes	This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;
Why Traders Care	Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy;
Also Called	Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;

Pending Home Sales m/m

Source	National Association of Realtors (latest release)
Measures	Change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 28 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Feb 28, 2014
FF Notes	This data is released about a week later than Existing Home Sales, but it's more forward-looking as a contract is signed several weeks before the home is counted as sold;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, renovations are done by the new owners, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction;
Also Called	Pending Resales;

COMEX Outlook: Commodity Technical Report

GOLD

Gold declined overnight to open at 1238.00/1239.00. It dropped to a low of 1233.75/1234.75 on dollar strength following better-thanexpected NY Fed manufacturing data, which was at its highest level in 20 months, while the benchmark S&P 500 index reached a record high. The metal then surged amidst unexpected buying pressure to a high of 1242.00/1243.00 before concluding the day marginally flat at 1239.00/1240.00.

 Gold closed lower again today at 1240, slightly breaching the daily uptrend that has been in place since the 1182 low on December 30. Support is at the recent 1218 low. The short-term uptrend still looks constructive despite today’s lower close, so long as 1218 holds. Resistance is at the 1268 high, and a break of this level would be bullish.

 Gold settled flat as increasing optimism over global economic growth weighed on the metal’s appeal as an alternative investment.

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell for the second consecutive week last week

Gold base import tariff was slashed to $407 per 10 grams from $392 per 10 grams after the global prices rose above $1,200/ounces.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
GOLD	1235	1231	1245	1254

Commodity Contract - S2 S1 R1 R2

SILVER

Silver moved lower overnight to open at 20.09/20.14. It dipped below $20 an ounce to a low of 19.90/19.95 before climbing to a high of 20.20/20.25 and then falling back to close the session at 20.12/20.17.

Silver closed lower today at 20.17, remaining trapped within a sideways range. Support is at the major low at 18.83, and resistance is at yesterday’s high in the 20.64 area.

The gold-silver ratio is slightly higher at 61.67. There is uptrend support in the 60.99 area.

Silver seen under pressure as data showing a strengthening U.S. labor market and improving regional manufacturing activity dampened buying interest.

The better labor market tone was captured by a survey showing an acceleration in manufacturing activity in the Mid-Atlantic region.

World Bank raised its forecast for global growth for the first time in three years as advanced economies started to pick up pace.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
SILVER	19.93	19.81	20.26	20.49

Commodity Contract - S2 S1 R1 R2

  

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded at USD3.341 a pound during European morning trade, down 0.5%.
Comex copper prices held in a range between USD3.339 a pound and USD3.369 a pound. The March contract ended Wednesday’s session up 0.66% to settle at USD3.358 a pound after upbeat U.S. data bolstered sentiment on the economic outlook.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.308 a pound, the low from January 15 and resistance at USD3.375 a pound, the high from January 8.
Data released Wednesday showed that manufacturing activity in the New York-region expanded at the fastest pace since May 2012 in January as new orders rose sharply.
A separate report showed that U.S. producer price inflation rose at the strongest rate in six months Copper futures declined on Thursday, as market players looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day for further indications on the future course of monetary policy.in December.

 Copper dropped weighed down by expectations of increased supplies later in the year, but signs of low availability for immediate consumption limited the decline. Price falls were capped by concerns about a lack of short-term supply in the physical market due to low stockpiles of copper in LME warehousesCopper stocks in LME-registered warehouses have been falling steadily since September, and are at around one-year lows.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
COPPER	3.3241	3.3058	3.3651	3.3878

Commodity Contract - S2 S1 R1 R2

CRUDE 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in March traded at USD94.20 a barrel during U.S. trading, up 0.11%. On Thursday the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of USD94.15 a barrel and a high of USD94.28 a barrel.
The March contract settled at USD94.26 a barrel on Thursday. Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD91.65 a barrel, Monday's low, and resistance at USD94.81 a barrel, Wednesday's high.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported earlier that its manufacturing index improved to 9.4 in January from 6.4 in December.

 Analysts had expected a reading of 8.6, and the upbeat reading sparked hopes for more robust activity in the nation's factories will hike demand for energy.Crude oil prices fluctuated between small gains and losses during Asian trading hours on Friday after a steep drop in crude oil imports by the U.S. and the market assessment that the high demand seen during the last week is unlikely to sustain.

Crude-oil stockpiles in the U.S. were down by 7.7 million barrels at 350.2 million barrels in the week ended  Jan. 10. 

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
CRUDE	93.49	92.45	94.53	95.10

Commodity Contract - S2 S1 R1 R2

Global Economic Data

TIME	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
7:00pm	Building Permits	1.01M	1.01M	STRONG
8:25pm	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	82.5	83.47	STRONG
8:30pm	JOLTS Job Openings	3.93M	3.97M	STRONG

Building Permits

Source	Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures	Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Feb 19, 2014
FF Notes	While this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12);
Why Traders Care	It's an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining a permit is among the first steps in constructing a new building;

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

Source	University of Michigan (latest release)
Measures	Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release	Feb 14, 2014
FF Notes	There are 2 versions of this data released 14 days apart – Preliminary and Revised. The Preliminary release is the earlier and thus tends to have the most impact;
Why Traders Care	Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;
Derived Via	Survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions;

JOLTS Job Openings

Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures	Number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Feb 11, 2014
FF Notes	It's released late, but can impact the market because job openings are a leading indicator of overall employment;
Acro Expand	Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS);
Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures	Number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry;