COMEX Report: Technical Analysis Outlook for 30 Jan

GOLD

Gold moved higher overnight to open at 1264.00/1265.00. It touched a high of 1268.50/1269.50 generating “safe haven” interest following the ongoing financial crisis in emerging markets, particularly in Argentina, which dragged global equities lower. The metal then dropped to a low of 1261.00/1262.00 as investors geared up for the Fed’s policy statement, before finally closing the session at 1262.00/1263.00. Following the close, the metal traded within range despite the Fed announcement of a further $10 billion cut to bring its monthly bond purchases down to $65 billion.

Gold traded higher today, closing at 1263. Resistance sits at 1278-79, from the 38.2% retracement of the August to December 2013 downtrend, and from Monday’s high. Support is at the recent low of 1231. RSI has turned higher, and is testing resistance at 62 (currently at 60.33).

Gold gained as stock markets surrendered early gains to fall ahead of a policy statement from the Federal Reserve.

Fed said it would trim its bond purchases by another $10 billion as it stuck to a plan to wind down its extraordinary economic stimulus

SPDR gold trust holding gained by 2.10 tonnes i.e. 0.27% to 792.56 tonnes from 790.46 tonnes.

Technical Levels

	S 1	S 2	R 1	R 2
GOLD	1250	1239	1272	1282

Commodity Contract: S2 S1 R1 R2 (Trading Tips)

SILVER

Silver edged higher overnight to open at 19.70/19.75. After posting a high of 19.95/20.00, it declined steadily to close at the session low of 19.54/19.59.

Silver is also trading higher at 19.59. Silver continues to be trapped within a sideways range, with the range high being 20.64, and the range low being 18.84. There is also a downtrend on the daily chart which comes in at 20.17. 

The gold-silver ratio is trading lower today at current 64.15. This is the first lower close after six sessions higher. Resistance is at the 67.56 high. There is strong support from the daily uptrend which currently comes in at 61.38.

Silver rose as ongoing turbulence in emerging markets boosted the safe haven appeal of the precious metal.

Prices earlier seen pressure as market sentiment improved after Turkey’s central bank announced aggressive rate hikes in an effort to stem the lira’s decline.

The U.S. Federal Reserve announced a further reduction in its bond-buying stimulus.

Technical Levels

	S 1	S 2	R 1	R 2
SILVER	19.35	19.14	19.86	20.17

Commodity Contract: S2 S1 R1 R2 (FREE Trail)

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery hit a session high of USD3.268 a pound, before trimming gains to trade at USD3.262 during European morning trade, up 0.3%.

The March copper contract fell to USD3.246 a pound on Tuesday, the lowest since December 9, before paring losses to settle at USD3.253 a pound, down 0.18%.

Copper futures were likely to find support at USD3.246 a pound, the low from January 28 and resistance at USD3.287 a pound, the high from January 27.

Appetite for riskier assets improved after Turkey’s central bank announced aggressive rate hikes overnight in an effort to stem the lira’s decline.

Turkey's central bank raised its overnight lending rate to 12% from 7.75% and its repurchase rate to 10% from 4.5% in its first emergency meeting since 2011.

The move eased concerns over emerging markets, following a broad based selloff last Friday, triggered by worries over the impact of reduction in Fed stimulus

and concerns over a possible slowdown in China.

Copper futures edged mildly higher on Wednesday, as global markets rebounded after an aggressive rate hike by the Turkish central bank and ahead of a policy announcement by the Federal Reserve later in the day.

Technical Levels

	S 1	S 2	R 1	R 2
COPPER	3.2286	3.2168	3.2606	3.2808

Commodity Contract: S2 S1 R1 R2 (Trading Signals)

CRUDE

On Wednesday, the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of USD97.38 a barrel and a high of USD97.59 a barrel. The March contract settled at USD97.42 a barrel.

Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD95.22 a barrel, Monday's low, and resistance at USD97.65 a barrel, Tuesday's high.

Meanwhile on Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 6.4 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 24, far beyond expectations for an increase of 2.3 million barrels, which sent prices falling by fanning fears the country remains awash in supply.

Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 357.6 million barrels as of last week.

The report also showed that total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 819,000 barrels compared to forecasts for a gain of 1.1 million barrels.

NYMEX crude oil prices rose during Asian trading hours on Thursday after Federal Reserve decided to cut USD10 billion from its USD75 billion monthly bond-buying program and U.S. supply data disappointed investors.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in March traded at USD97.62 a barrel during Asian trading, up 0.26%

Technical Levels

	S 1	S 2	R 1	R 2
CRUDE	96.53	95.71	97.96	98.57

Commodity Contract: S2 S1 R1 R2 (Free Signals)

Global Economic Data

TIME	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
7.00P.M	Advance GDP q/q	4.1%	3.3%	STRONG
7.00P.M	Unemployment Claims	326K	331K	STRONG
7.00P.M	Advance GDP Price Index q/q	2.0%	1.2%	MEDIUM
8.30P.M	Pending Home Sales m/m	0.2%	-0.1%	STRONG

Advance GDP q/q

Source	Bureau of Economic Analysis (latest release)
Measures	Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released quarterly, about 30 days after the quarter ends;
Next Release	Apr 30, 2014
FF Notes	While this is q/q data, it's reported in an annualized format (quarterly change x4). There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart – Advance, Preliminary, and Final. The Advance release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact;
Why Traders Care	It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health;
Also Called	GDP First Release, Estimated GDP;
Acro Expand	Gross Domestic Product (GDP);

Unemployment Claims

Source	Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures	The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
Usual Effect	Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Feb 6, 2014
FF Notes	This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;
Why Traders Care	Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy;
Also Called	Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;

Pending Home Sales m/m

Source	National Association of Realtors (latest release)
Measures	Change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 28 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Feb 28, 2014
FF Notes	This data is released about a week later than Existing Home Sales, but it's more forward-looking as a contract is signed several weeks before the home is counted as sold;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, renovations are done by the new owners, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction;
Also Called	Pending Resales;

COMEX Outlook: Commodity Technical Report

GOLD

Gold declined overnight to open at 1238.00/1239.00. It dropped to a low of 1233.75/1234.75 on dollar strength following better-thanexpected NY Fed manufacturing data, which was at its highest level in 20 months, while the benchmark S&P 500 index reached a record high. The metal then surged amidst unexpected buying pressure to a high of 1242.00/1243.00 before concluding the day marginally flat at 1239.00/1240.00.

 Gold closed lower again today at 1240, slightly breaching the daily uptrend that has been in place since the 1182 low on December 30. Support is at the recent 1218 low. The short-term uptrend still looks constructive despite today’s lower close, so long as 1218 holds. Resistance is at the 1268 high, and a break of this level would be bullish.

 Gold settled flat as increasing optimism over global economic growth weighed on the metal’s appeal as an alternative investment.

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell for the second consecutive week last week

Gold base import tariff was slashed to $407 per 10 grams from $392 per 10 grams after the global prices rose above $1,200/ounces.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
GOLD	1235	1231	1245	1254

Commodity Contract - S2 S1 R1 R2

SILVER

Silver moved lower overnight to open at 20.09/20.14. It dipped below $20 an ounce to a low of 19.90/19.95 before climbing to a high of 20.20/20.25 and then falling back to close the session at 20.12/20.17.

Silver closed lower today at 20.17, remaining trapped within a sideways range. Support is at the major low at 18.83, and resistance is at yesterday’s high in the 20.64 area.

The gold-silver ratio is slightly higher at 61.67. There is uptrend support in the 60.99 area.

Silver seen under pressure as data showing a strengthening U.S. labor market and improving regional manufacturing activity dampened buying interest.

The better labor market tone was captured by a survey showing an acceleration in manufacturing activity in the Mid-Atlantic region.

World Bank raised its forecast for global growth for the first time in three years as advanced economies started to pick up pace.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
SILVER	19.93	19.81	20.26	20.49

Commodity Contract - S2 S1 R1 R2

  

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded at USD3.341 a pound during European morning trade, down 0.5%.
Comex copper prices held in a range between USD3.339 a pound and USD3.369 a pound. The March contract ended Wednesday’s session up 0.66% to settle at USD3.358 a pound after upbeat U.S. data bolstered sentiment on the economic outlook.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.308 a pound, the low from January 15 and resistance at USD3.375 a pound, the high from January 8.
Data released Wednesday showed that manufacturing activity in the New York-region expanded at the fastest pace since May 2012 in January as new orders rose sharply.
A separate report showed that U.S. producer price inflation rose at the strongest rate in six months Copper futures declined on Thursday, as market players looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day for further indications on the future course of monetary policy.in December.

 Copper dropped weighed down by expectations of increased supplies later in the year, but signs of low availability for immediate consumption limited the decline. Price falls were capped by concerns about a lack of short-term supply in the physical market due to low stockpiles of copper in LME warehousesCopper stocks in LME-registered warehouses have been falling steadily since September, and are at around one-year lows.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
COPPER	3.3241	3.3058	3.3651	3.3878

Commodity Contract - S2 S1 R1 R2

CRUDE 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in March traded at USD94.20 a barrel during U.S. trading, up 0.11%. On Thursday the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of USD94.15 a barrel and a high of USD94.28 a barrel.
The March contract settled at USD94.26 a barrel on Thursday. Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD91.65 a barrel, Monday's low, and resistance at USD94.81 a barrel, Wednesday's high.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported earlier that its manufacturing index improved to 9.4 in January from 6.4 in December.

 Analysts had expected a reading of 8.6, and the upbeat reading sparked hopes for more robust activity in the nation's factories will hike demand for energy.Crude oil prices fluctuated between small gains and losses during Asian trading hours on Friday after a steep drop in crude oil imports by the U.S. and the market assessment that the high demand seen during the last week is unlikely to sustain.

Crude-oil stockpiles in the U.S. were down by 7.7 million barrels at 350.2 million barrels in the week ended  Jan. 10. 

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
CRUDE	93.49	92.45	94.53	95.10

Commodity Contract - S2 S1 R1 R2

Global Economic Data

TIME	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
7:00pm	Building Permits	1.01M	1.01M	STRONG
8:25pm	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	82.5	83.47	STRONG
8:30pm	JOLTS Job Openings	3.93M	3.97M	STRONG

Building Permits

Source	Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures	Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Feb 19, 2014
FF Notes	While this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12);
Why Traders Care	It's an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining a permit is among the first steps in constructing a new building;

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

Source	University of Michigan (latest release)
Measures	Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release	Feb 14, 2014
FF Notes	There are 2 versions of this data released 14 days apart – Preliminary and Revised. The Preliminary release is the earlier and thus tends to have the most impact;
Why Traders Care	Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;
Derived Via	Survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions;

JOLTS Job Openings

Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures	Number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Feb 11, 2014
FF Notes	It's released late, but can impact the market because job openings are a leading indicator of overall employment;
Acro Expand	Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS);
Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures	Number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry;

Comex Commodity Technical Outlook

GOLD

Gold moved higher overnight to open at 1235.00/1236.00. Shortly after open, it touched a low of 1227.25/1228.25 before surging to the day’s high of 1248.50/1249.50 on dollar weakness following weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data with non-farm payrolls adding a meagre 74k jobs in December against the 196k forecasted by economists. The metal closed the day at 1247.00/1248.00.

Gold closed higher this week at 1247, the third up-week in a row. While the test of the major low at 1180 was encouraging last week, it is too early to call an end to the strong downtrend that has been in place since the high of 1921 in 2011. 

The 50% retracement of the rally from 2008 to 2011 provides resistance; this is at 1301. There is strong support at the 1180 low. We are inclined to think that this is simply a correction; and that we will retest the 1180 low and achieve the technical target of 1155 (61.8% retracement of the long-term rally). We would be stopped out of this view should gold rally past 1416, the last major high.

Gold rose after disappointing U.S. jobs data stirred speculation Fed will take a gradual approach to tapering its bond-buying stimulus this year.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose just 74,000 in December, the smallest increase since January 2011, while the unemployment rate fell to 6.7 percent

Dollar weakened fueling expectations for the Federal Reserve to trim its USD75 billion monthly bond-buying program at a slower pace than once expected.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
GOLD	1232	1218	1254	1262

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

SILVER

Silver edged higher overnight to open at 19.76/19.81. It briefly touched a low of 19.65/19.70 before reaching a high of 20.24/20.29 on the back of gold prior to concluding the session at 20.21/20.26.

Silver closed unchanged this week at 20.21 and has been trading sideways for the past six weeks. There is resistance from a downtrend that has been in place since August, which currently comes in at 20.85. Resistance from the larger downtrend, in place since the 2011 high of 49.79, comes in at 23.63. The trend remains bearish.

The gold-silver ratio is trading higher this week at 61.83. Support from the uptrend currently comes in at 60.18. There is resistance at 67.46, the last major high. The trend remains bullish.

Silver rose as investors recalibrated their expectations for Federal Reserve policy after a much weaker-than-expected reading on the U.S. labor market.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported earlier that the U.S. economy added 74,000 jobs in December, well below expectations for a 196,000 increase.

Fed asset purchases tend to weaken the dollar by suppressing long-term interest rates, thus making prices an attractive hedge.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
SILVER	19.76	19.31	20.46	20.71

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

COPPER

Comex, copper for March delivery jumped 1.29% on Friday to settle the week at USD3.341 a pound. Prices of the industrial metal lost 1.3% on Thursday to end at USD3.299 a pound. Comex copper prices shed 0.26% on the week.

China’s copper imports inched up 1.3 percent in December on a month earlier propped up by contracted shipments even as a cash crunch depressed spot purchases, but arrivals still fell 2.3 percent in 2013 due to lower term bookings of refined metal. China’s copper imports rose 29 percent to 441,291 tons last month from a year earlier, government data showed today. Total imports expanded 8.3 percent, while exports grew 4.3 percent. Stockpiles monitored by exchanges in London, New York and Shanghai are at the lowest since November 2012, with LME inventories dropping for a 46th day.

Copper rose as traders bet that an apparent slowdown in U.S. hiring could tweak Fed’s monetary policy and increase the appeal of industrial commodities.

China’s copper imports inched up 1.3% in December propped up by contracted shipments even as a cash crunch depressed spot purchases

Data showed China’s export growth weakened in December–raising concerns about metal demand if economic growth isn’t sustained.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
COPPER	3.3051	3.2688	3.3621	3.3828

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

CRUDE

The Fed’s stimulus program is viewed by many investors as a key driver in boosting the price of commodities as it tends to depress the value of the dollar.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in February rose 0.08% during Asian trading on Monday at USD93.02.
Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD91.24 a barrel, the low from January 9 and resistance at USD94.18 a barrel, the high from January 8. During the last week, U.S. crude futures, also known as West Texas Intermediate or WTI, lost 1.55%, the second consecutive weekly decline.

Crude oil pricecs rose during Asian trading on Monday after weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data fanned speculation that the Federal Reserve will scale down its bond-buying program at a slower pace than previously anticipated.

Crudeoil settled flat recovering from lows on reports of production problems at a major U.K. oilfield stoked supply concerns.

China’s crude oil imports rose 13 percent in December from a year ago to a record 6.31 million barrels per day as two big refineries reopened.

Crude demand for this year could rebound slightly as new refineries open, though growth may be capped by a lack of momentum in the broader economy.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
CRUDE	92.00	91.30	93.40	94.08

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

COMEX Commodity Technical Outlook

GOLD

Gold dropped lower overnight to open at 1203.50/1204.50. It briefly touched a high of 1208.00/1209.00 as the Euro strengthened against the Dollar. It then declined to a low of 1203.00/1204.00 following strong U.S. data that pointed to an increase in pending home sales and factory activity while global equities climbed to a six-year high. Quiet trading in the afternoon led the metal to close at 1204.00/1205.00. 

Gold is weaker today at 1204. The metal had been drifting higher the past week in a move that started at 1188 and ended Friday at 1218. We see key down side support at 1181 and topside resistance at 1222, which is the top of a bearish two-month channel. Big picture: the metal is closing out 2013 at the lower end of this year’s range of 1181 to 1795. The risk remains to the down side.

Gold settled down tracking Comex Gold which settled under $1,200 as a willingness to take on more risk and the prospect of a global recovery

Expectations that the U.S. economy will improve and the rest of the world’s growth will stabilise in 2014, have further undermined the case for holding bullion

Holdings on SPDR Gold Trust fell three tonnes on Friday to their lowest since Jan. 2009 at 801.2 tonnes.

Hedge funds and money managers cut their bullish bets in gold and silver in the week to Dec. 24, data from the CFTC showed on Monday. 

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
GOLD	1192	1181	1215	1226

Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

SILVER

Silver followed gold lower overnight to open at 19.59/19.64. It touched a low of 19.55/19.60 shortly after the open and then climbed to a high of 19.74/19.79 before closing the session at 19.61/19.66.

Silver is lower today at 19.66. Silver had been moving higher in recent trading from 19.15 to 20.19. The price action of the past month has been overall sideways with key levels seen at 18.91 and 20.47. Silver has had a rough 12 months falling from January high of 32.46 to July low of 18.26.

The Gold Silver ratio has spiked higher today from 60.23 to 61.25. We see resistance at 61.86 from a declining trend line.

Silver down after investors shrugged off soft U.S. housing figures and sold on concerns years of support from the Federal Reserve

Some market participants believe the Fed will likely reduce its bond purchases by USD10 billion in each of its next seven meetings

Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 50.90 tonnes to 9958.64 tonnes from 10009.54 tonnes.

Volumes remained light with year-end positioning and profit-taking driving flows. 

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
SILVER	19.32	19.03	20.04	20.47

Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded at USD3.389 a pound during European morning trade, up 0.1%. Comex copper prices traded in a range between USD3.372 a pound and USD3.391 a pound.
The March contract settled 0.4% lower on Friday to end at USD3.385 a pound. Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.368 a pound, the low from December 26 and resistance at USD3.431 a pound, the high from December 24 and the strongest level since April 12.
Volumes were expected to remain light on Monday, with year-end positioning and profit-taking driving flows.
Copper prices have been well-supported in recent weeks amid indications the U.S. economic recovery is deepening. The U.S. is second behind China in global copper demand.

Copper futures were little changed near last week’s four-month high in subdued trade on Monday, as market players looked ahead to U.S. pending home sales data later in the day to gauge the strength of the world’s largest economy.

Copper little changed as market players looked ahead to U.S. pending home sales data later in the day to gauge the strength of the world’s largest economy.

Copper prices have been well-supported in recent weeks amid indications the U.S. economic recovery is deepening.

Copper production in the January-to-November period increased 6.5 percent to roughly 5.3 million tonnes, the INE added.

Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at 367450mt that is down by -3500mt.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
COPPER	3.3720	3.3611	3.3928	3.4031

Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, Crude oil futures for February delivery traded at USD99.34 a barrel at time of writing rising 0.05%.

It earlier traded at a session high USD99.39 a barrel. Crude oil was likely to find support at USD99.06 and resistance at USD100.75.
US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, fell 0.01% to trade at USD80.16.
Elsewhere on the ICE, Brent oil for February delivery rose 0.03% to trade at USD111.27 a barrel, with the spread between the Brent oil and Crude oil contracts standing at USD11.93 a barrel.

Crude oil futures were higher during the Asian session on Tuesday.

Crude oil settled down after disappointing U.S. home sales figures sparked concerns that the U.S. economy continues to battle potholes on its road to recovery.

Support seen as data showed that U.S. total fuel demand hit a 26-month high in October while a key Libyan oil export port remained shut.

Energy Information Administration showed. U.S. crude is set for an annual gain of 8% in 2013, after falling about 7 per cent in 2012.

“OPEC oil ministers who claimed that there would not be any surpluses on the crude oil markets next year.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
CRUDE	98.80	98.32	100.09	100.90

Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

Global Economic Data

Date: 31/12/2013
TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
7.30P.M	S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y	13.3%	13.4%	MEDIUM
8.15P.M	Chicago PMI	63.0	61.3	MEDIUM
8.30P.M	CB Consumer Confidence	70.4	76.5	STRONG

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y

Source	Standard & Poor's (latest release)
Measures	Change in the selling price of single-family homes in 20 metropolitan areas;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 60 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Jan 28, 2014
FF Notes	This is one of the few non-seasonally adjusted numbers reported on the calendar, as it's the primary calculation for this indicator;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of the housing industry's health because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity;
Acro Expand	Standard & Poor's (S&P), Case-Shiller (CS), House Price Index (HPI);
Source	Standard & Poor's (latest release)

Chicago PMI

Source	MNI (latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the Chicago area;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, on the last business day of the current month;
Next Release	Jan 31, 2014
FF Notes	Data is given to MNI subscribers 3 minutes before the public release time listed on the calendar - early market reaction is usually a result of trades made by these subscribers. Above 50.0 indicates expansion, below indicates contraction;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy;
Derived Via	Survey of around 200 purchasing managers in Chicago which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories;
Also Called	Chicago Business Barometer;
Acro Expand	Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI);

CB Consumer Confidence

Source	The Conference Board Inc. (latest release)
Measures	Level of a composite index based on surveyed households;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, on the last Tuesday of the current month;
Next Release	Jan 28, 2014
Why Traders Care	Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;
Derived Via	Survey of about 5,000 households which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions including labor availability, business conditions, and overall economic situation;
Acro Expand	The Conference Board (CB);

COMEX: Commodity Technical Outlook (30 Dec, 2013)

GOLD
Gold moved higher overnight to open at the session low of  1210.00/1211.00. The metal then climbed to a high of  1218.75/1219.75 on low volumes as the Euro appreciated against  the Dollar and major world equities rallied while U.S. government  bond yields rose to a two-and-a-half year high of 3.02 percent,  which is indicative of an improving economy and supports  expectations that the Fed will continue with tapering of its  monthly bond buying program. Quiet trading in the afternoon led  the metal to close at 1214.50/1215.50.

Gold closed slightly higher on the week at 1214; the metal has  been alternating between lower and higher weekly closes for the  past eight weeks. However, the down candles have been stronger  than the up ones, taking us from 1361 in early November to a low  of 1187. The major low of 1180 is likely to be tested. From an  Elliott Wave perspective, we feel we are in Wave C, the last wave  of the corrective 3-wave sequence off the 1921 high in September  2011. Possible targets for Wave C are 1155, which is the 61.8%  retracement of the 2008 to 2011 uptrend; or 1044, which is the  bottom of Wave 4 of this same uptrend. RSI is at 35.2, with  support just above 20, thus gold has further to go before it  reaches ‘oversold’ levels.
Gold settled flat as prices recovered from lows on the back of increased physical demand.
Expectations that the U.S. economy can stand on its own as monetary stimulus is withdrawn were buoyed by data showing a decrease in weekly jobless claims
SPDR gold trust holding dropped by 3.00 tonnes to 801.22 tonnes from 804.22 tonnes. 
Technical Levels

	S1	S2	S3	S4
GOLD	1205	1200	1218	1221

Commodity Contract: S2 S1 R1 R2

SILVER

Silver edged higher overnight to open at 19.88/19.93, which was  also the low of the day. It followed gold to a high of 20.09/20.14  prior to concluding the session at 20.00/20.05.
Silver closed higher this week at 20.05, trading inside of last  week’s range. Support is at 18.23 from the 2013 low. The trend  remains bearish, and a test of this level is likely. There is resistance  from the weekly downtrend off the August 2013 high, which  currently comes in at 21.30.
Silver ended with gains amid short covering after the dollar retreated further but remained on track for its annual loss as rallies in equities dented its appeal.
Gains were limited on sentiments that Fed’s plans to trim USD10 billion in monthly bond purchases in January will lead to further cuts to the stimulus program.
Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 50.90 tonnes to 9958.64 tonnes from 10009.54 tonnes. 
Technical Levels

	S1	S2	S3	S4
SILVER	19.70	19.55	20.04	20.27

Commodity Contract: S2 S1 R1 R2

COPPER
Copper settled down -0.38% at 468.2 on profit booking after gaining due to tightening supplies and expectations that economic recovery in China will help boost demand. China’s economic growth is likely to come in at 7.6 percent this year, according to a cabinet report, just above the government’s target of 7.5 percent and slightly below last year’s 7.7 percent. Its industrial output is likely to grow by about 9.8 percent in 2013, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said.

Buying in China is expected to wind down during the Lunar New Year holidays in January. Also supporting copper prices has been a lack of readily available metal due to falling exchange stocks. The latest LME data showed copper stocks in exchange-registered warehouses dropped to their lowest since January at 370,950 tonnes. Still, ample copper concentrate seen flowing into the market next year will eventually feed into more stocks of refined copper, swelling supply and overhanging prices.
Copper dropped on profit booking after gaining due to tightening supplies and expectations that economic recovery in China will help boost demand.
State Reserves Bureau (SRB) is working on plans to buy about 300,000 tonnes of copper
Buying in China is expected to wind down during the Lunar New Year holidays in January. 
Technical Levels

	S1	S2	S3	S4
COPPER	3.4346	3.3993	3.4876	3.5053

Commodity Contract: S2 S1 R1 R2

CRUDE
 On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in February rose 0.77% on Friday to settle the week at USD100.32 a barrel by close of trade. U.S. oil prices rose to a session high of USD100.75 a barrel earlier, the strongest level since October 21.
Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD99.05 a barrel, the low from December 26 and resistance at USD101.22 a barrel, the high from October 21.
The February contract settled 0.33% higher on Thursday to end at USD99.55 a barrel. On the week, U.S. crude futures, also known as West Texas Intermediate or WTI, rose 0.99%.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report released Friday that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 4.7 million barrels in the week ended December 20, compared to expectations for a decline of 2.3 million barrels.
New York-traded crude oil futures ended the week at a nine-week high on Friday, climbing above the key USD100-a-barrel level after government data showed that U.S. oil supplies fell more-than-expected last week.
Crude gained driven by the fourth straight weekly decline in oil inventories and also drew support from civil unrest in Africa that has cut off supplies.
EIA said that U.S. Crude Oil Inventories fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of -4.731M, from -2.941M in the preceding month.
US crude stocks fall even as output hits 1988 high –EIA
Technical Levels

	S1	S2	S3	S4
CRUDE	99.54	98.78	100.90	101.52

Commodity Contract: S2 S1 R1 R2

Global Economic Data

DATE	30.12.13
TIME :IST	8.30P.M
DATA	Pending Home Sales m/m
PRV	-0.6%
EXP	1.1%
IMPACT	STRONG

Pending Home Sales m/m

Source	National Association of Realtors (latest release)
Measures	Change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 28 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Jan 30, 2014
FF Notes	This data is released about a week later than Existing Home Sales, but it's more forward-looking as a contract is signed several weeks before the home is counted as sold;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, renovations are done by the new owners, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction;
Also Called	Pending Resales;
Source	National Association of Realtors (latest release)

Commodity Technical Outlook: GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE

GOLD
Gold edged higher overnight to open at 1201.00/1202.00. It  dropped slightly to a low of 1200.00/1201.00 before climbing to a  high of 1205.50/1206.50 on low volumes ahead of Christmas as  positive U.S. data pointed to an increase in sales of durable goods  while the monthly home price index increased slightly. The metal  traded within range for the rest of the day before finally closing at  1204.00/1205.00.
Gold closed higher today at 1204, reversing yesterday’s losses. The  metal remains in a bearish trend, support is at the major low of  1180, with resistance at the high from Thursday, December 19th  around 1227. The last signal in MACD on the daily chart was a sell  signal on December 19th.
Gold rose as bearish traders continued to leave the market ahead of the year’s end and a weaker dollar burnished gold’s allure to foreign buyers.
Gold set for its biggest annual loss in three decades as investors switch to rallying equities on optimism about a global economic recovery.
SPDR Gold Trust, said its holdings declined 0.19 percent to 804.22 tonnes on Thursday from 805.72 tonnes on Tuesday.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
GOLD	1208	1203	1217	1221

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

SILVER
Silver remained unchanged overnight to open at 19.40/19.45,  which was also the low of the day. Thereafter, it followed gold to a  high of 19.55/19.60 before concluding the day at 19.52/19.57.
Silver closed very slightly higher at 19.52, grinding out three days  of small gains, but all inside the range from December 19th. This is  not indicative of bullish price action, and we expect the metal to  retest the major low of 18.90, followed by a test of the 18.22 low  from June. Resistance is at the December 19th high around 19.92.

The gold-silver ratio is trading higher at current 61.74. Support is  at 61.06, the 38.2% retracement of the July-August downtrend.  Resistance is at 62.28, the 50% retracement level
Silver rose after data showed that the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. last week fell more-than-expected.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level in nearly a month, a hopeful sign for the labour market
Continuing jobless claims in the week ended December 14 rose to 2.923 million from 2.877 million in the preceding week.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
SILVER	19.82	19.71	20.04	20.27

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded at USD3.375 a pound during U.S. morning trade, flat on the day. Comex copper prices traded in a range between USD3.368 a pound and USD3.375 a pound.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.304 a pound, the low from December 24 and resistance at USD3.420 a pound, the high from December 24 and the strongest level since April 12.

The March contract surged to an eight-month high of USD3.420 a pound on Tuesday, before settling at USD3.374 a pound, up 2.01%.
Copper futures were little changed in subdued trade on Thursday, with volumes expected to remain light as holidays in many countries limit activity.
Copper rose on growing confidence about the global economy, year-end covering and the prospect of purchases from China’s state reserves.
Strong U.S. economic data and a bullish growth forecast for China, fuelled hopes about stronger demand for copper and other industrial metals.
Japan’s output of rolled copper product rose to 67,751 tonnes in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, up 9.6 percent from a year earlier.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
COPPER	3.4298	3.4101	3.4590	3.4690

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, Crude oil futures for February delivery traded at USD99.39 a barrel at time of writing falling 0.16%.
It earlier traded at a session low USD99.38 a barrel. Crude oil was likely to find support at USD98.53 and resistance at USD99.76.

US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, fell 0.18% to trade at USD80.52.
Elsewhere on the ICE, Brent oil for February delivery fell 0.26% to trade at USD111.70 a barrel, with the spread between the Brent oil and Crude oil contracts standing at USD12.31 a barrel..
Crude oil futures were lower in Asian trading hours on Friday.
Crude oil gained boosted by demand for refined products after industry data earlier this week showed a steep decline in gasoline and distillate inventories.
Supply outages in Africa are also in focus and added some geopolitical risk premium to prices.
Today crude oil inventories: EXP: -1.9M PREV: -2.9M. Actual is at 9.30PM.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
CRUDE	99.20	98.78	99.81	100.46

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

Global Economic Data

TIME	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
9.30P.M	Crude Oil Inventories	-2.9m	-1.9m	MEDIUM

Crude Oil Inventories

Source	Energy Information Administration (latest release)
Measures	Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week;
Usual Effect	No consistent effect - there are both inflationary and growth implications;
Frequency	Released weekly, 4 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Jan 3, 2014
FF Notes	While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada's sizable energy sector;
Why Traders Care	It influences the price of petroleum products which affects inflation, but also impacts growth as many industries rely on oil to produce goods;
Also Called	Crude Stocks, Crude Levels;
Acro Expand	Energy Information Administration (EIA);