GOLD
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
Gold moved higher overnight to open at
1235.00/1236.00. Shortly after open, it touched a low of
1227.25/1228.25 before surging to the day’s high of
1248.50/1249.50 on dollar weakness following weaker-than-expected
U.S. jobs data with non-farm payrolls adding a meagre 74k jobs in
December against the 196k forecasted by economists. The metal closed
the day at 1247.00/1248.00.
Gold closed higher this week at 1247,
the third up-week in a row. While the test of the major low at 1180
was encouraging last week, it is too early to call an end to the
strong downtrend that has been in place since the high of 1921 in
2011.
The 50% retracement of the rally from 2008 to 2011 provides
resistance; this is at 1301. There is strong support at the 1180
low. We are inclined to think that this is simply a correction; and
that we will retest the 1180 low and achieve the technical target of
1155 (61.8% retracement of the long-term rally). We would be stopped
out of this view should gold rally past 1416, the last major high.
Gold rose after disappointing U.S. jobs
data stirred speculation Fed will take a gradual approach to tapering
its bond-buying stimulus this year.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose just 74,000
in December, the smallest increase since January 2011, while the
unemployment rate fell to 6.7 percent
Dollar weakened fueling expectations
for the Federal Reserve to trim its USD75 billion monthly bond-buying
program at a slower pace than once expected.
Technical Levels
| S1 | S2 | R1 | R2 | |
| GOLD | 1232 | 1218 | 1254 | 1262 |
SILVER
Silver edged higher overnight to open
at 19.76/19.81. It briefly touched a low of 19.65/19.70 before
reaching a high of 20.24/20.29 on the back of gold prior to
concluding the session at 20.21/20.26.
Silver closed unchanged this week at
20.21 and has been trading sideways for the past six weeks. There is
resistance from a downtrend that has been in place since August,
which currently comes in at 20.85. Resistance from the larger
downtrend, in place since the 2011 high of 49.79, comes in at 23.63.
The trend remains bearish.
The gold-silver ratio is trading higher
this week at 61.83. Support from the uptrend currently comes in at
60.18. There is resistance at 67.46, the last major high. The trend
remains bullish.
Silver rose as investors recalibrated
their expectations for Federal Reserve policy after a much
weaker-than-expected reading on the U.S. labor market.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported
earlier that the U.S. economy added 74,000 jobs in December, well
below expectations for a 196,000 increase.
Fed asset purchases tend to weaken the
dollar by suppressing long-term interest rates, thus making prices an
attractive hedge.
Technical Levels
| S1 | S2 | R1 | R2 | |
| SILVER | 19.76 | 19.31 | 20.46 | 20.71 |
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
COPPER
Comex, copper for March delivery jumped
1.29% on Friday to settle the week at USD3.341 a pound. Prices of the
industrial metal lost 1.3% on Thursday to end at USD3.299 a pound.
Comex copper prices shed 0.26% on the week.
China’s copper imports inched up 1.3
percent in December on a month earlier propped up by contracted
shipments even as a cash crunch depressed spot purchases, but
arrivals still fell 2.3 percent in 2013 due to lower term bookings of
refined metal. China’s copper imports rose 29 percent to 441,291
tons last month from a year earlier, government data showed today.
Total imports expanded 8.3 percent, while exports grew 4.3 percent.
Stockpiles monitored by exchanges in London, New York and Shanghai
are at the lowest since November 2012, with LME inventories dropping
for a 46th day.
Copper rose as traders bet that an
apparent slowdown in U.S. hiring could tweak Fed’s monetary policy
and increase the appeal of industrial commodities.
China’s copper imports inched up 1.3%
in December propped up by contracted shipments even as a cash crunch
depressed spot purchases
Data showed China’s export growth
weakened in December–raising concerns about metal demand if
economic growth isn’t sustained.
Technical Levels
| S1 | S2 | R1 | R2 | |
| COPPER | 3.3051 | 3.2688 | 3.3621 | 3.3828 |
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
CRUDE
The Fed’s stimulus program is viewed
by many investors as a key driver in boosting the price of
commodities as it tends to depress the value of the dollar.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in February rose 0.08% during Asian trading on Monday at USD93.02.
Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD91.24 a barrel, the low from January 9 and resistance at USD94.18 a barrel, the high from January 8. During the last week, U.S. crude futures, also known as West Texas Intermediate or WTI, lost 1.55%, the second consecutive weekly decline.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in February rose 0.08% during Asian trading on Monday at USD93.02.
Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD91.24 a barrel, the low from January 9 and resistance at USD94.18 a barrel, the high from January 8. During the last week, U.S. crude futures, also known as West Texas Intermediate or WTI, lost 1.55%, the second consecutive weekly decline.
Crude oil pricecs rose during Asian trading on Monday after weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data fanned
speculation that the Federal Reserve will scale down its bond-buying
program at a slower pace than previously anticipated.
Crudeoil settled flat recovering from
lows on reports of production problems at a major U.K. oilfield
stoked supply concerns.
China’s crude oil imports rose 13
percent in December from a year ago to a record 6.31 million barrels
per day as two big refineries reopened.
Crude demand for this year could
rebound slightly as new refineries open, though growth may be capped
by a lack of momentum in the broader economy.
Technical Levels
| S1 | S2 | R1 | R2 | |
| CRUDE | 92.00 | 91.30 | 93.40 | 94.08 |
Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2
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