COMEX Outlook: Daily Technical Analysis

GOLD

Gold edged lower overnight to open at the session low of 1292.00/1293.00. 

The metal climbed after weaker-than-expected U.S. data showed disappointing consumer retail spending and lackluster growth in jobs. The metal touched a high of 1300.50/1301.50 before concluding the session at 1300.00/1301.00.

 Gold traded higher today, closing at 1301 and continuing its uptrend off the December 31st low. We are bullish gold so long as it holds support at the 1278 area. The next resistance is 1308, which is the 50% retracement of the August to December downtrend. RSI is confirming the move, making a new high dating back to August 2013. RSI is currently at 69.45, in bullish territory, and a sign that the uptrend has finally gained momentum.

Gold gained following the release of unexpectedly weak U.S. retail sales figures for January and separate report showing that initial jobless claims rose last week.

The U.S. Commerce Department said that retail sales fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.4% last month, disappointing expectations for a 0.3% increase.

SPDR gold trust holding gained by 7.50 tonnes i.e. 0.94% to 806.35 tonnes from 798.85 tonnes.

SILVER

Silver moved lower overnight to open at 20.20/20.25, which was also the low of the day. It followed gold to a high of 20.40/20.45 prior to concluding the session at 20.39/20.44.

Silver had a strong move higher today, closing at 20.44. The metal has moved from 19.01 to 20.44 in the past two weeks. RSI has finally broken through resistance and is currently at 62.32. These signs are encouraging; however, as we have had false breaks before in this long sideways consolidation, we will wait for a positive weekly close through 20.64 resistance to shift out of neutral.

The gold-silver ratio is trading lower at current 63.50, testing support at the same level, which is the 61.8% retracement of the last downtrend (in July-August 2013). There is strong support from the daily uptrend, which currently comes in at 61.82. Resistance is at the recent high of 65.37.

Silver gained as support seen from a sharply lower dollar and weaker equity markets.

Recent U.S. economic data, including two straight months of weak jobs growth, have raised questions over whether the world’s biggest economy can sustain growth

Core retail sales, which exclude automobile sales, were unchanged last month, compared to forecasts for a 0.1% increase.

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded in a range between USD3.239 a pound and USD3.256 a pound.

Copper prices last traded at USD3.240 a pound during European morning hours, down 0.5%.

The March copper contract rallied to USD3.263 a pound on Wednesday, the most since January 29, before trimming gains to settle at USD3.256 a pound, up 1.28%.

Futures were likely to find support at USD3.202 a pound, the low from February 11 and resistance at USD3.263 a pound, the high from February 12.

Investors were looking ahead to U.S. retail sales data due later in the day, amid concerns that sales slumped in January after a 0.2% rise in December.

Recent weak jobs reports have raised concerns over whether the U.S. recovery has lost momentum since the end of last year.

Market players were also awaiting the release of inflation data out of China due on Friday to further gauge the strength of the world’s second largest economy.

China is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

Copper futures pulled back from a more than one-week high on Thursday, as investors looked ahead to key economic data out of the U.S. and China to gauge the strength of the world’s two-largest economies..

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in March traded at USD100.17 a barrel during European morning trade, down 0.18%.

The March contract settled down 0.02% on Thursday to end at USD100.35 a barrel.

Oil futures were likely to find support at USD99.11 a barrel, the low from February 10 and resistance at USD101.38 a barrel, the high from February 12.

Oil prices remained under pressure after the U.S. Commerce Department on Thursday said that retail sales fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.4% last month, disappointing expectations for a 0.3% increase. Retail sales for December were revised down to a 0.1% decline from a previously reported increase of 0.2%.

Rising retail sales over time correlate with stronger economic growth, while weaker sales signal a declining economy.

Core retail sales, which exclude automobile sales, were unchanged last month, compared to forecasts for a 0.1% increase. Core sales in December were revised down to a gain of 0.3% from a previously reported increase of 0.7%.

Core sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of the government's gross domestic product report. Consumer spending accounts for as much as 70% of U.S. economic growth.

A separate report showed that the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. last week rose unexpectedly, underlining concerns over the strength of the labor market.

Crude oil futures edged lower during early European trading hours on Friday, as investors awaited the release of U.S. data later in the trading session, after disappointing economic reports on Thursday disappointed.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1290	12681	1313	1322
SILVER	20.17	19.95	20.74	20.96
COPPER	3.2273	3.2046	3.2643	3.2786
CRUDE	99.61	98.87	100.87	101.39

Global Economic Data

DATE	TIME:IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
14.01.14	7.00P.M	Import Prices m/m	0.0%	-0.1%	MEDIUM
14.01.14	7.45P.M	Industrial Production m/m	0.3%	0.2%	MEDIUM
14.01.14	8.25P.M	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	80.4	80.6	STRONG

Import Prices m/m

Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures	Change in the price of imported goods and services purchased domestically;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 13 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 13, 2014
FF Notes	This is the earliest government-released inflation data;
Why Traders Care	It contributes to inflation for businesses and consumers, especially those who rely heavily on imported goods and services;
Also Called	Import Price Index;
Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)

Industrial Production m/m

Source	Federal Reserve (latest release)
Measures	Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 16 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 17, 2014
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of economic health - production reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle and is correlated with consumer conditions such as employment levels and earnings;
Also Called	Factory Output;

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

Source	University of Michigan (latest release)
Measures	Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release	Mar 14, 2014
FF Notes	There are 2 versions of this data released 14 days apart – Preliminary and Revised. The Preliminary release is the earlier and thus tends to have the most impact;
Why Traders Care	Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;
Derived Via	Survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions;
Also Called	Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment;
Acro Expand	University of Michigan (UoM);

COMEX: Daily Technical analysis Report

GOLD

Gold advanced overnight to open at 1277.50/1278.50, which was also the intraday high, as investors turned cautious amidst last week’s weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data and the ongoing financial crisis in emerging economies. The metal then dipped to a low of 1272.50/1273.50 while the dollar remained largely unchanged. Choppy trading for the remainder of the session led it to close at 1274.50/1275.50.

Gold closed higher today at 1274 and tried to break through resistance in the 1278/79 area. RSI is at 61.13, and is testing resistance at the previous high of 62. This is an encouraging sign, and a break would be bullish. Support is at the most recent low of 1238.

Gold edged higher on speculation that Fed would slow the pace of its stimulus tapering after a weak U.S. jobs report raised questions over the state of economic recovery.

China’s gold consumption jumped 41 percent in 2013 to exceed 1,000 tonnes for the first time, as a sharp slide in prices attracted buyers for jewellery and bullion.

The U.S. central bank has said it aims to finish the tapering by the end of this year depending on the health of the labour market.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
GOLD	1267	1256	1284	1291

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

SILVER

Silver moved higher overnight to open at the session high of 20.27/20.32. It retreated to a low of 20.07/20.12 prior to concluding the session at 20.10/20.15.

Silver closed unchanged today at 20.10. Despite breaking up through a daily downtrend last week, silver is still lacking in momentum. RSI has moved higher to 54.90, but needs to break through resistance at 57.28, the January high. Price resistance is at the top of the range at 20.64, with support at the low of 18.83.

The gold-silver ratio is trading higher at 63.55. After a big drop last week, it has found some support in the high 62’s. There is strong support from the uptrend which currently comes in at 61.70. Resistance is at the recent high of 65.37. 

Silver gained as traders reassessed their expectations for how quickly Fed will roll back its stimulus program following the release of mixed U.S. employment data.

Mixed U.S. employment report forced investors to recalibrate their assumptions about the future course of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

Data on Friday showed that the U.S. economy added 113,000 jobs in January, well below expectations for jobs growth of 185,000.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
SILVER	19.95	19.64	20.43	20.58

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

COPPER

The March copper contract ended Friday’s session up 0.22% to settle at USD3.236 a pound.

Futures were likely to find support at USD3.191 a pound, the low from February 6 and resistance at USD3.258 a pound, the high from January 30.

On Thursday, China will release its monthly trade data, which will be followed by inflation numbers Friday. The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., data on Friday showed that the economy added 113,000 jobs in January, well below expectations for jobs growth of 185,000, after December's lackluster gain of 75,000 jobs.

It was the weakest two-month stretch of job creation in three years as inclement weather contributed to a slowdown in hiring.

Yet the report also showed that the number of people participating in the labor force edged up to 63% from a 30-year low of 62.8% last month, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down to a five year low 6.6% from 6.7% in December.

Market players now looked ahead to Congressional testimony from new Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen later in the week for clues regarding the future of course of U.S. monetary policy.

Copper futures were little changed near a one-week high on Monday, as investors looked ahead to key economic data out of China later in the week to gauge the strength of the world’s second largest economy.

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
COPPER	3.2083	3.1921	3.3468	3.2691

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

CRUDE

On Monday, the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of USD99.89 a barrel and a high of USD100.07 a barrel. The March contract settled at USD100.06 a barrel.

Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD97.14 a barrel, Friday's low, and resistance at USD100.75 a barrel, the high from Dec. 27.

Oil prices rose on sentiments that recent blasts of cold air have hiked demand for heating fuel and other distillates, though forecasts for moderating temperatures in the coming weeks capped gains.

Also capping gains were reports of an end to supply snags in the North Sea, while increased exports from Libya to the global market also watered down gains.

Armed protestors have occupied oil facilities in Libya up until recently, and exports from the Middle Eastern nation are normalizing.

Markets were also eager to listen to Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's testimony before Congress on Tuesday, hoping the nation's new top economist will shed insight on the direction of the U.S. central bank's USD65 billion in monthly bond purchases.

Nymex crude oil prices fluctuated between small gains and losses on Tuesday during Asian trading hours on fears that recent blasts of winter storms have taken their toll on heating oil stockpiles more

than anticipated, though reports of increased supply from Libya capped the commodity's gains. 

Technical Levels

	S1	S2	R1	R2
CRUDE	99.26	98.46	100.70	101.34

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

Global Economic Data

DATE	TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
11.01.14	8.30P.M	Fed Chair Yellen Testifies			STRONG
11.01.14	8.30P.M	JOLTS Job Openings	4.00M	4.04M	STRONG

Fed Chair Yellen Testifies

FF Alert	Text of the speech due to be released 90 minutes earlier than the speaking time listed;
Description	Due to testify on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington DC;
Source	Federal Reserve (latest release)
Speaker	Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen;
Usual Effect	More hawkish than expected = Good for currency;
Next Release	Feb 13, 2014
FF Notes	The testimony usually comes in 2 parts: first she reads a prepared statement (a text version is made available on the Fed's website at the start), then the committee will hold a question and answer session. Since the questions are not4 known beforehand they can make for some unscripted moments that lead to heavy market volatility;
Why Traders Care	As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, she has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize her public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;
Acro Expand	Federal Reserve (Fed);

JOLTS Job Openings

Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures	Number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 11, 2014
FF Notes	It's released late, but can impact the market because job openings are a leading indicator of overall employment;
Acro Expand	Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS);

Gold, Silver,Copper, Crude: Comex Technical Outlook

SILVER

Silver advanced overnight to open at 19.25/19.30. It touched a low of 19.21/19.26 before climbing to a high of 19.62/19.67 and prior to concluding the session at 19.39/19.44. Free Trial

Silver closed higher today at 19.39. There is a base of support in the high 18’s/low 19’s, where we have traded on seven occasions since the beginning of December. There is also a strong downtrend in place on the daily chart, which currently comes in at 20.04. Silver has traded in a sideways range since early December, so we would need a breach of support at 18.83 or of resistance at 20.64 to get excited about the metal. 

The gold-silver ratio is trading close to unchanged at 64.94. It remains in a well-defined uptrend with support currently at 61.50. Resistance is at the major high of 67.56.

Silver gained after data showed that manufacturing activity in the U.S. deteriorated to the lowest level since June.

Caution over emerging markets, U.S. economy and Fed’s move to taper its stimulus program remain crucial to the metal’s moves

Holdings at ishares silver trust gained by 0.66% i.e. 65.84 tonnes to 10095.06 tonnes from 10029.22 tonnes.

Technical Levels

	S 1	S 2	R 1	R 2
SILVER	19.10	18.81	19.66	19.92

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

GOLD

Gold moved higher overnight to open at 1247.00/1248.00. It touched a low of 1245.25/1246.25 before surging to a high of 1265.50/1266.50 as the dollar retreated while equity markets slipped following weaker-than-expected U.S. ISM data that showed a decline in manufacturing activity, which included a significant drop in new manufacturing orders, amidst continuing pressure on emerging markets. The metal then consolidated later in the afternoon to close the day at 1259.50/1260.50.

Gold closed higher today at 1260. Price action has been very lackluster, and the past two trading sessions have traded inside of Thursday’s big down-day. A nice clean break through the recent high of 1279, which is also a Fibonacci retracement level (38.2% of the August to December 2013 downtrend), would improve the outlook considerably and would shift our view out of neutral. We note the MACD is on the verge of triggering a sell signal.

Gold rose as prices were supported after a worse than expected U.S. manufacturing report weighed on the dollar and global equities.

ISM said its index of national factory activity fell to its lowest level since May 2013 at 51.3 last month, from a recently revised 56.5 in December.

U.S. manufacturing activity slowed sharply in January on the back of the biggest drop in new orders in 33 years.

Technical Levels

	S 1	S 2	R 1	R 2
GOLD	1245	1230	1270	1281

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery fell to a session low of USD3.184 a pound, the weakest since December 4, before trimming losses to trade at USD3.194 during European morning hours, down 0.1%.

The March copper contract settled down 0.91% on Friday to end at USD3.197 a pound. Copper futures were likely to find support at USD3.168 a pound, the low from December 2 and resistance at USD3.230 a pound, the high from January 31.

Copper prices have declined in each of the past eight sessions leading up to Monday, the longest losing streak since January 1996.

Data released earlier showed that China's official non-manufacturing PMI slipped to its lowest level since December 2008 in January, falling to 53.4 from 54.6 in December.

The deterioration in the services sector adds to declining manufacturing PMIs. Data released over the weekend showed that China’s official manufacturing PMI fell to a six-month low of 50.5 in January from 51.0 in December.

Last week, private sector data from HSBC confirmed a contraction in China’s manufacturing sector for the first time since July.

China is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

Technical Levels

	S 1	S 2	R 1	R 2
COPPER	3.1715	3.1595	3.1990	3.2145

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

CRUDE

On Monday, the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of USD96.54 a barrel and a high of USD96.73 a barrel. The March contract settled at USD96.65 a barrel.

Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD95.22 a barrel, the low from Jan. 27, and resistance at USD98.58 a barrel, Thursday's high.

Oil prices suffered after the Institute for Supply Management said its widely-watch manufacturing gauge fell to a seven-month low in January, as new orders slumped.

The ISM’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index came in at 51.3 in January, down from 57.0 in December.

Analysts were expecting the index to inch down to 56.4 in January.

The report added new order growth fell at its fastest rate in 33 years, with the new orders index dropping to 51.2 from 64.4 in December. The employment index fell from 55.8 in December to 52.3, the weakest since June.

New York-traded crude oil prices fluctuated between small gains and losses in Asian trading on Tuesday after U.S. manufacturing gauges missed market expectations and painted a picture of a still-weak U.S. economy that will demand less fuel and energy going forward than once anticipated..

Technical Levels

	S 1	S 2	R 1	R 2
CRUDE	95.81	95.20	97.50	95.56

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

Global Economic Data

TIME	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
8.30P.M	Factory Orders m/m	1.8%	-1.9%	MEDIUM
8.30P.M	IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism	45.2	46	LOW

Factory Orders m/m

Source	Census Bureau(latest release)
Measures	Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 35 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 6, 2014
FF Notes	This report contains a revision of the Durable Goods Orders data released about a week earlier, and fresh data regarding non-durable goods;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of production - rising purchase orders signal that manufacturers will increase activity as they work to fill the orders;

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism

Source	TIPP(latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release	Mar 4, 2014
FF Notes	Above 50.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism;
Derived Via	Survey of about 900 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of economic conditions including six-month economic outlook, personal financial outlook, and confidence in federal economic policies;
Also Called	IBD/TIPP Consumer Confidence;

Singapore SGX: Technical View Of STI

Market Review:
Singapore shares continue the down trend and traded below 3000 mark and closed well below this level.

Market forecast:

• STI opened with gap down @ and crossed its major support level and took support multiple support zone of 2989-2985 mark and closed near to day low with loss of 1.20%.
• STI crossed its 3000 mark and traded below this level whole day and closed @ 2990 mark just near to day low, for this bearish move STI made a candlestick pattern called long black line; this is a single and highly bearish candle.
• As STI crossed its 3020 mark so we expect more down side movement in STI and it can touch 2950-2920.

 

STRAITS TIME LEVELS		STI Day Performance
Support 1	2970	Open	3011.41
Support 2	2950	High	3015.16
Support 3	2930	Low	2989.00
Resistance 1	3015	Close	2990.95
Resistance 2	3035	Change(Points)	-36.27
Resistance 3	3055	% Change	-1.20
		Volume	1488.1M
		Rise	126
		Fall	245
		Unch	415

Support:
STI having immediate support @ 2970 level and below this level it can take support @2950-2930 will be the support zone for STI.
Resistance:
STI having immediate Resistance @3015 and above this level it may take resistance @ 3035-3055.
Technical indicators:
Technical indicators MACD, RSI and CCI are turning.

Important Factor for today:
China’s official non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 53.4 in January from December's 54.6, putting further strains on the market, as pressures from the massive sell-off in emerging markets show little sign of abating.

Top 5 Gainers			Top 5 Losers
Scrip Name	CMP	%change	Scrip Name	CMP	%change
DBS	16.54	0.42	JSH 500US$	31.32	-3.63
ComfortDelGro	1.94	0.26	Genting SP	1.34	-2.9
Capitaland	2.76	0	HKLand US$	5.86	-2.66
Noble Grp	0.95	0	CapMallsAsia	1.715	-2.56
Wilmar	3.11	-0.32	JMH 400US$	52.35	-2.3

Important factor to watch this week 3rd to 7th Feb 2014:
S'pore Jan PMI
S'pore Jan foreign reserves
US Jan employment situation
 Corporate Action & Result Calendar as on 4th Feb 2014

Company Name	Type	Expiry Date	Record Date	Date Paid/Payable	Particulars
CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS	DIVIDEND	04 Feb 2014	06 Feb 2014	28 Feb 2014	010713 - 311213 SGD 0.0093 TAX EXEMPT
CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS	DIVIDEND	04 Feb 2014	06 Feb 2014	28 Feb 2014	010713 - 311213 SGD 0.0463 LESS TAX
FRASER AND NEAVE, LIMITED	DIVIDEND	04 Feb 2014	06 Feb 2014	18 Feb 2014	SGD 0.12 ONE-TIER TAX
FRASERS CENTREPOINT LIMITED	DIVIDEND	04 Feb 2014	06 Feb 2014	18 Feb 2014	SGD 0.0173 ONE-TIER TAX
STI ETF	DIVIDEND	04 Feb 2014	06 Feb 2014	20 Feb 2014	SGD 0.043 ONE-TIER TAX
TRIYARDS HOLDINGS LIMITED	DIVIDEND	04 Feb 2014	06 Feb 2014	18 Feb 2014	SGD 0.02 ONE-TIER TAX