COMEX Technical Analysis Overview

GOLD

Gold edged lower overnight to open at 1335.50/1336.50. It fell briefly to a low of 1333.50/1334.50 as U.S. equities opened at an all-time high after China’s Yuan depreciated to its lowest level in over three years. The metal then advanced to a high of 1343.00/1344.00 after disappointing U.S. data pointed to low consumer confidence that raised concerns about economic recovery; this coupled with worries about China’s economic slowdown and political crisis in emerging markets. It closed the day at 1342.00/1343.00.  Gold closed higher today at 1343, taking out another Fibonacci resistance level at 1337. As was also noted yesterday, there is some small RSI divergence, however RSI is still moving higher at the current 73.52 level. We would want to see it take out the previous high of 75.57. In price, there are previous highs in the 1362 and 1375 areas, but we see the risk as a full retracement back to the 1433 high from August 2013. Only a move back below 1308 would change this view. Gold gained after disappointing U.S. consumer confidence and a lackluster gain in home prices fueled concerns over the pace of U.S. economic recovery. U.S. home price gains slowed in December, according to a closely watched housing survey that underscored a loss of momentum in the housing recovery Gold holdings at Turkey’s central bank fell by a hefty 31.171 tonnes in January, data from the International Monetary Fund showed.
SILVER

Silver retreated overnight to open at 21.82/21.87. It dropped to a low of 21.73/21.78 before recovering to post a high of 22.00/22.05. It concluded the session at 21.96/22.01. Silver closed unchanged today at 21.96. The metal has been trading sideways for the past seven sessions. It has been unable to close above resistance in the 21.97 area, which is the 50% retracement of the August to December downtrend. We remain bullish so long as the metal holds the 38.2% retracement level at 21.23. The next target is 22.71, the 61.8% retracement level. 

The gold-silver ratio is higher today at current 61.12, but has traded sideways for the past week. Having broken the uptrend last week, we still see the risk as a full retracement to the 57.09 low. Silver prices ended with losses as pressure seen tracking weakness in crude oil and base metals prices. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city HPI showed U.S. home price gains slowed in December, underscoring a loss of momentum in the housing recovery A spate of soft economic data from the United States and China since the start of the year has drawn investors back to bullion.  
COPPER

A cooler property sector not only weighs on demand for copper as construction material, but also dampens consumption from the home appliances sector. The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for May delivery traded in a range between $3.215 a pound and $3.253 a pound. Coppe prices last traded at $3.218 a pound during European morning hours, down 0.65%. The May copper contract fell to $3.204 a pound on Monday, the lowest since February 11, before trimming losses to settle at $3.240 a pound, down 0.61%. Futures were likely to find support at $3.204 a pound, the low from February 24 and resistance at $3.259 a pound, the high from February 24. Data released Monday showed that average new home prices in China’s 70 major cities rose 9.6% in January from a year earlier, easing from the previous month’s 9.9% increase. It was the first slowdown in the rate of price increases since November 2012. Meanwhile, market players also looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future course of monetary policy. The U.S. is to release a closely-watched report on consumer confidence, as well as private sector data on house price inflation. The U.S. is second behind China in global copper demand. Copper futures declined on Tuesday to re-approach the previous session’s two-week low, amid ongoing concerns that attempts by policymakers in Beijing to cool China’s property sector and rein in lending will reduce demand for the industrial metal.  
CRUDE 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in April traded at $102.05 a barrel during Asian trading, up 0.05%. On Tuesday the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of $101.95 a barrel and a high of $102.09 a barrel and settled at $101.99 a barrel.

Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at $99.41 a barrel, the low from Feb. 14, and resistance at $103.45 a barrel, Monday’s high. Oil prices slid after the Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index slipped to 78.1 in February from 79.4 in January, mainly due to concerns over general business conditions, jobs, and earnings. Analysts were expecting the index to tick up to 80.0. The present situation index rose to its highest level in almost six years, but the expectations index declined, indicating that while consumers believe the economy has improved they do not foresee further considerable improvement in the coming months. Giving oil some support were expectations the Federal Reserve will very gradually taper its $65 billion monthly bond-buying program, which weakens the dollar by suppressing long-term borrowing costs to spur recovery. Nymex crude oil prices were mixed between small gains and losses during Asian trade on Wednesday after a sustained decline overnight as the markets anticipated that a sluggish U.S. economy will demand less fuel and energy, while warmer weather forecasts too pushed prices lower.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1336	1329	1347	1357
SILVER	21.74	21.53	22.10	22.45
COPPER	3.2335	3.2085	3.2845	3.3105
CRUDE	100.95	100.07	102.77	103.77

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
8.30P.M	New Home Sales	414K	406K	STRONG
9.00P.M	Crude Oil Inventories	1.0M	1.1M	MEDIUM

New Home Sales

Source	Census Bureau(latest release)
Measures	Annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 25 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 25, 2014
FF Notes	While this is monthly data, it’s reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12);
Why Traders Care	It’s a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a new home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, furniture and appliances are purchased for the home, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction;
Also Called	New Residential Sales;

Crude Oil Inventories

Source	Energy Information Administration (latest release)
Measures	Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week;
Usual Effect	No consistent effect – there are both inflationary and growth implications;
Frequency	Released weekly, 4 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Mar 5, 2014
FF Notes	While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada’s sizable energy sector;
Why Traders Care	It influences the price of petroleum products which affects inflation, but also impacts growth as many industries rely on oil to produce goods;
Also Called	Crude Stocks, Crude Levels;

Singapore STI Weekly Technical Analysis

Weekly wrap of STI:

For the third week of February the STI still continues to be in uptrend & the trend seems to continue further as all the major resistance that we have forecasted in the last weekly report of 14 Feb 2014 has been broken positively for this week and our last weekly report hit accurately on our forecasted levels

As the uptrend start from 3048 the opening level at 17th Feb. and then the STI made the high of 3109.80 for this week and closed at 3099.93. For this week the market covered the movement of almost 65 points. Observing the candle & the chart formation the market has recovered from the downfall that came on 23 Jan 2014.

Support 1	Support 2	Support 3	Resistance 1	Resistance 2	Resistance 3
3070	3050	3020	3115	3145	3165

 Macroeconomic factors:

• The Gross Domestic Production rate in Singapore was announced at 6.10% in the Q4 2013. The average growth rate for last 6 years was 5.56%
• Singapore’s fourth-quarter home prices slid for the first time in almost two years to 72% to 565 units
  
• Australia based Seek Ltd world’s largest online employment market place by revenue announced A$380.7million a 38% jump in turnover,
• Singapore government proposed Trans boundary Haze Pollution Bills with a criminal penalty of up to S$300,000
• Singapore Domestic wholesale trade increased 3.3% in Q4 Dec 2013, general wholesale trade sec made the largest growth of 32.7% for Q4 Dec 2013 On YOY basis.
• 8.6% of growth in new business formation in Singapore for the Q4 Dec 2013, around 14,500 new businesses was formed in Singapore.
• More over the week was full of results like Ezion Holding, Biosensors, Capitaland, etc that gave a good support to the recovery of the STI. Major sector supported by the volume were Service & Manufacturing.

Market Forecast for week ahead:

For continues 3rd week of winning strike, STI closed higher side with bullish outlook for coming week too.STI made week high above 3100 mark @ 3109.80 mark  just below its 20 week MA level of 3014.

STI formed a long white candle as Index move low to high, STI opens lower and then it continuously cross resistance levels one by one and now trading near to 3100 level and if it shows same movement in next week we will see major resistance @ 3015 level.

For coming week STI may remain upside whenever it traded above 3050 mark, its major resistance will come @ 3115-3145 level. Also Singapore budget declaration will effect on coming week on Singapore equities.

STI Resistance:

STI having immediate Resistance @3115 and above this level it may take resistance @ 3145-3165

STI Support:

STI having immediate support @ 3070 level and below this level it can take support @3050-3020 will be the support zone for STI.

STRAIT TIMES WEEKLY WRAP
OPEN	3048.70
HIGH	3109.80
LOW	3044.50
CLOSE	3099.93

Technical Indicators:

Technical indicators MACD given its bullish crossover in Daily chart, RSI and CCI are trading in recovery mode, RSI is in oversold zone so we can expect recovery in it.

Corporate Action & Result Calendar as on 24th Feb 2014

Company Name	Type	Expiry Date	Record Date	Date Paid/Payable	Particulars
China Fish	Ex-Dividend		26 Feb 2014	07 Mar 2014
Croesus RTr	Ex-Dividend		26 Feb 2014	31 Mar 2014
Silverlake	Ex-Dividend		26 Feb 2014	14 Mar 2014
Swing Media	Ex-Dividend		26 Feb 2014

COMEX Report Of Daily Technical Analysis

GOLD
Gold moved lower overnight to open at 1311.50/1312.50 following soft data out of China and France. The metal climbed to a high of 1317.50/1318.50 before dipping to a low of 1311.00/1312.00 as the dollar stabilized and U.S. equities rose following mixed U.S. economic data that showed a small drop in initial jobless claims. A weak Philly Fed number brought in fresh interest, leading the metal to a close of 1316.50/1317.50.
Gold has had a nice bounce higher today from 1308 to 1323. The overall price action appears to be a bullish wedge. The move starting February from 1239 to 1332 was very impulsive in nature; the pull back to 1308 corrective. Risk is for another run to the topside with a break of 1332 targeting last major high seen October 28th at 1361. Only a break of 1308 would yield a deeper correction to 1297 (23.6% of the 1185 to 1332 calendar year up move).
Gold slipped as the dollar firmed after minutes from a U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting indicated support for continued tapering of its stimulus
Prices benefited after data showed factory activity in China fell to a seven-month low and a closely watched gauge of U.S. manufacturing sector fell sharply.
India’s plan to keep tax on gold imports at current levels could underpin sentiment in the physical market as it will lead to more smuggling.
SILVER
Silver retreated overnight to open at the session low of 21.60/21.65. Shortly after open, it posted a high of 21.76/21.81 before closing the day at 21.65/21.70.
Silver moved back higher today to the upper end of our one month range. The metal seems to have found support at the 23.6% Fibo at 21.28. Resistance is seen at 21.98, which is lastweek’s high and the 50% retracement level of the last down leg from 25.09 to 18.51. While the metal holds above 21.28 we see risk of another leg higher to the 61.8% retracement level at 22.70.
The gold-silver ratio remains heavy at current 60.63. The drop this month from 65.10 to 60.35 overhangs the market. Support is seen at 60.23 from the December 31st low. The 60.17 level represents the key 61.8% Fibo of our five-month up move from 57.12 to 65.10. Despite the technical support we see the risk of another leg lower to 59.00. Only a move back above 61.55 would shake the bearish bias.
Silver dropped as after investors continued to sell for profits, shrugging off a soft regional U.S. output report as weather-related setback that won’t alter monetary policy.
Continuing jobless claims in the week ended February 8 rose to 2.981 million from 2.944 million in the preceding week.
Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 0.68% i.e. 68.81 tonnes to 10081.70 tonnes from 10150.51 tonnes.
COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded in a range between $3.257 a pound and $3.288 a pound.
Copper prices last traded at $3.268 a pound during European morning hours, down 0.55%. The March copper contract ended Wednesday’s session unchanged to settle at $3.285 a pound.
Futures were likely to find support at $3.253 a pound, the low from February 18 and resistance at USD3.302 a pound, the high from February 19.
Data released earlier showed that China’s HSBC Flash Purchasing Managers Index fell to 48.3 in February from a final reading of 49.5 in January, remaining below the 50.0 level that separates expansion from contraction for a second month.
Copper traders consider shifts in the HSBC PMI an indicator of China’s copper demand, as the industrial metal is widely used by the sector.
The Asian nation is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.
Meanwhile, copper traders looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day to gauge the strength of the world’s largest economy and second-biggest consumer of the industrial metal.
Copper futures declined on Thursday, after data showed that manufacturing activity in China fell to a seven-month low in February, further suggesting that the world’s second-largest economy may be facing a slowdown.
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in April traded at $102.79 a barrel during Asian trading, down 0.08%.
On Thursday, the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of $102.80 a barrel and a high of $102.95 a barrel to settle at $102.84 a barrel.

Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at $99.41 a barrel, the low from Feb. 13, and resistance at $103.28 a barrel, Wednesday’s high.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said that its manufacturing index deteriorated to minus 6.3 in February from January’s reading of 9.4. Analysts had expected the index to inch down to 8.0 in February.
The soft numbers fueled concerns that U.S. recovery still faces headwinds made worse by rough winter weather, and the country may demand less fuel and energy going forward than previously anticipated.
Also on Thursday, the Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for unemployment assistance in the U.S. last week fell by 3,000 to 336,000, slightly below expectations for a decline of 4,000.
In a separate report, the Labor Department said U.S. consumer prices rose 1.6% on a year-over-year basis in January, in line with forecasts. Consumer prices were 0.1% higher from a month earlier, also matching forecasts.
Core consumer prices, which are stripped of volatile food and energy components, were also up 1.6% on a year-over-year basis and 0.1% from the previous month.
Weekly supply data also watered down prices.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 973,000 barrels last week, less than market expectations for a gain of 2.01 million barrels.
The report also showed that total motor gasoline inventories increased by 309,000 barrels, confounding expectations for a decline of 538,000 barrels.
Meanwhile inventories of distillates, which include diesel fuel and heating oil, fell by 339,000 million barrels, far less than market calls for a loss of 1.89 million.
Nymex crude prices fluctuated between small gains and losses during morning Asian trade on Friday on falling demand and higher U.S. supplies.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1310	1303	1324	1330
SILVER	21.42	21.16	21.92	22.42
COPPER	3.2578	3.2366	3.2943	3.3096
CRUDE	102.60	102.30	103.36	104.11

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
8.30P.M	Existing Home Sales	4.87M	4.73M	STRONG

Existing Home Sales

Source	National Association of Realtors(latest release)
Measures	Annualized number of residential buildings that were sold during the previous month, excluding new construction;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 20 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 20, 2014
FF Notes	While this is monthly data, it’s reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12). Existing homes make up the majority of total sales and therefore tend to have more impact than New Home Sales;
Why Traders Care	It’s a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, renovations are done by the new owners, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction;
Also Called	Home Resales;
Source	National Association of Realtors (latest release)

Comex Daily Technical Analysis Report

GOLD
Gold moved lower overnight to open at 1318.50/1319.50. It surged to a high of 1322.00/1323.00 following weak U.S. housing market data including a drop in housing starts to a three-year low. The metal then retreated to a low of 1317.25/1318.25 amidst selling pressure prior to release of minutes of the U.S. Fed’s January meeting, which also dragged Treasuries lower. It closed the day at 1320.00/1321.00. 
Gold closed lower again today at 1320, but traded within yesterday’s range. The consolidation has allowed RSI to fall from ‘overbought’ levels in the 75-area, back to 68. We view this as a correction in the uptrend off the December 31st low, with support at 1302, the 22-day moving average. Resistance is at 1337, the 61.8% retracement of the August to December 2013 downtrend.
Gold edged lower as the dollar steadied ahead of the Federal Reserve’s minutes of its January meeting
Tuesday’s New York manufacturing and U.S. housing data were the latest numbers out of the United States to disappoint investors.
SPDR gold trust holding dropped by 5.64 tonnes i.e. 0.70% to 795.61 tonnes from 801.25 tonnes.
SILVER
Silver edged marginally lower overnight to open at 21.82/21.87. It followed gold to a high of 21.90/21.95 before falling to a low of 21.74/21.79. It was mostly range bound closing the session at 21.83/21.88.
Silver closed lower today at 21.83, consolidating a move that took the metal from 20.45 to 22.06 in the past four sessions. Support is at yesterday’s low in the 21.32 area, with resistance at 23.09, the high from October 2013. Technicals continue to be bullish since silver’s breakout from its sideways consolidation last week.
The gold-silver ratio is trading higher today at 60.58. The chart looks bearish since the ratio broke below its uptrend that had been in place since August 2013. The target is a full retracement to the 57.09 low.
Silver remained lower, but recovered some of losses following the release of disappointing data on U.S. housing starts and building permits.
Minutes of Fed’s Jan. policy meeting showed officials wanted to drive home the idea that their asset-purchase program would be trimmed in predictable
The U.S. Commerce Department said that number of building permits issued last month declined by 5.4% to a seasonally adjusted 937,000 units.
COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded in a range between $3.281 a pound and $3.300 a pound.
Copper prices last traded at $3.290 a pound during European morning hours, up 0.15%. The March copper contract ended Tuesday’s session 0.64% higher to settle at $3.285 a pound.
Futures were likely to find support at $3.253 a pound, the low from February 18 and resistance at USD3.320 a pound, the high from February 18.
Investors were looking ahead to the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting later in the trading day, when the bank voted to cut its stimulus program by another $10 billion to $65 billion per month.
Earlier this month Fed Chair Janet Yellen indicated that the central bank is on track to maintain the pace of reductions to its stimulus program, as long as the economy continues to improve as expected.
Later Wednesday, the country was to publish reports on building permits, housing starts and producer price inflation.
Data on Tuesday showed that the Empire State manufacturing index fell more-than-expected in February as new orders dropped.
A separate report showed foreign investors sold almost $120 billion of U.S. assets in December.
The disappointing data added to concerns that the U.S. economic recovery has lost momentum since the end of last year as inclement winter weather weighed on growth.
Copper futures fluctuated between small gains and losses on Wednesday, as market players eyed the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting.
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in April traded at $102.77 a barrel during Asian trading, down 0.07%.
On Wednesday, the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of $102.74 a barrel and a high of $103.00 a barrel. The April contract settled at $102.84 a barrel.
Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at $99.41 a barrel, Thursday’s low, and resistance at $102.95 a barrel, the high from Oct. 16.
Strong winter storms that swept over the northeastern U.S. on Tuesday and brought strong winds and fresh snowfall likely hiked demand for heating oil, investors were betting.
Chilly forecasts sent oil prices climbing, as did unrest in crude-rich Venezuela and Libya.
The rally cooled somewhat as investors jumped to the sidelines to await the release of the Federal Reserve’s January policy meeting minutes later.
Insight on the U.S. central bank’s $65 billion bond-buying program could move prices by either strengthening or weakening the dollar.
Nymex crude prices fell slightly during Asian trading hours on Thursday after climbing to their 2014 high on Wednesday as the markets weighed weather concerns in the U.S. along with heating oil inventories.
Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1312	1304	1325	1332
SILVER	21.49	21.14	22.08	22.31
COPPER	3.2720	3.2585	3.3005	3.3155
CRUDE	102.50	101.70	103.95	104.57

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
7.00P.M	Core CPI m/m	0.1%	0.1%	STRONG
7.00P.M	Unemployment Claims	339K	335K	STRONG
8.30P.M	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index	9.4	9.2	STRONG

Core CPI m/m

Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures	Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 16 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 18, 2014
FF Notes	Food and energy prices account for about a quarter of CPI, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The FOMC usually pays the most attention to the Core data - so do traders;
Why Traders Care	Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate;
Also Called	CPI Ex Food and Energy, Underlying CPI;
Acro Expand	Consumer Price Index (CPI), Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)

Unemployment Claims

Source	Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures	The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
Usual Effect	Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Feb 27, 2014
FF Notes	This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;
Why Traders Care	Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy;
Also Called	Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

Source	Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release	Mar 20, 2014
FF Notes	Above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment;
Derived Via	Survey of about 250 manufacturers in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district which asks respondents to rate the relative level of general business conditions;

COMEX Report of Technical Analysis

GOLD

Gold edged marginally lower overnight to open at the intraday low of 1317.00/1318.00. It moved up higher following weaker-than expected U.S data that included a drop in NY Fed manufacturing activity and a decline in home builder confidence as investors remain cautious on global economic growth. 

The metal consolidated to close at the session high of 1324.00/1325.00. Gold closed lower today at 1324, unable to breach resistance in the 1337 area after moving from a low of 1182 to a high of 1331 since the end of 2013. Support is at 1308, the 50% retracement of the last downtrend (August to December 2013), followed by the 200-day moving average at 1303. RSI in Gold on the daily chart had moved into serious ‘overbought’ territory at 75.60, so a correction is likely healthy for the uptrend. We may see a temporary pullback into the 1284 area. We would re-assess our bullish view if gold breaches 1278 on the downside.

 SILVER

Silver moved marginally higher overnight to open at 21.50/21.55, which was also the low of the day. It moved to a high of 21.88/21.93 prior to concluding the session at 21.87/21.92.

Silver closed higher at 21.92, forming a potential hanging man in the candlestick charts. A hanging man, as implied by the name, would be bearish, but given it follows a strong advance, it must be confirmed by a down-day tomorrow. The strong breakout on Friday through resistance in the 20.64 area was bullish, and was confirmed by a breakout in RSI to a new 6-month high in the 76.50 area. There is a downtrend in play off the April 2011 high which may act as resistance. This downtrend currently comes in at 22.51.

The gold-silver ratio made another bearish drop today after a big drop on Friday. The ratio is currently trading at 60.43. It has now definitively broken its uptrend which had support in the 61.94 area – this area should now act as resistance. This latest move opens up a full retracement to the 57.09 low from August 2013.

COPPER

Copper settled up 0.8% as support from a strong euro helped cushion concerns about short-term demand in China after its central bank moved to tighten the money supply.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) issued cash-draining forward bond repurchase agreements on Tuesday, sucking $7.9 billion out of the system, pushing up the cost of money after unexpectedly strong credit growth in January. China is the biggest consumer of copper, which is used in construction and power cables. It imported record volumes of copper last month, partly for consumption and partly to ease tight credit conditions.

Goldman Sachs sees Chinese bonded inventories at 700,000 tonnes, up from 550,000 tonnes since the beginning of the year, it said in a note. The euro hit a seven-week high against the dollar, which was trading at a six-week low against a basket of currencies.

In the week ahead, the focus will be on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s tapering of monetary stimulus, with the release of its minutes on Wednesday, and on China’s slowdown, with a purchasing managers’ index due on Thursday. Both factors have been behind this year’s sell-off in emerging markets. U.S. manufacturing last week recorded its biggest drop in more than 4-1/2 years in January as cold weather disrupted production. It was the latest indication that the world’s biggest economy got off to a weak start this year. 

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in April traded at USD102.45 a barrel during Asian trading, up 0.34%.

On Tuesday, the New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of USD102.27 a barrel and a high of USD102.66 a barrel to settle at 102.10 a barrel.

Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD100.31 a barrel, the earlier low, and resistance at USD102.95 a barrel, the high from Oct. 16.

Updated weather forecasting models indicated that a strong winter storm was set to sweep over the northeastern U.S. on Tuesday and bring strong winds and fresh snowfall.

Frigid weather reports sent crude prices rising on sentiments demand for heating oil will climb as temperatures fall across the heavily-populated northeastern U.S.

Soft data out of the U.S. sent prices rising as well due to the monetary implications they may bring.

The dollar weakened after the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said that its general business conditions index came in at 4.48 for February, down from a 20-month high of 12.51 in January. Analysts had expected the index to decline to 9.00.

Nymex crude prices continued to rise during Asian trading hours on Wednesday after hitting four-month highs on strong U.S. data, a winter storm and supply concerns in the Middle East.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1306	1294	1325	1332
SILVER	20.74	20.07	21.79	22.16
COPPER	3.2493	3.2341	3.2748	3.2851
CRUDE	99.66	98.62	100.70	101.10

Global Economic Data

TIME :IST	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
7.00P.M	Building Permits	0.99M	0.98M	STRONG
7.00P.M	PPI m/m	0.4%	0.2%	STRONG
7.00P.M	Core PPI m/m	0.3%	0.2%	MEDIUM

Building Permits

Source	Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures	Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 18, 2014
FF Notes	While this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12);
Why Traders Care	It's an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining a permit is among the first steps in constructing a new building;
Also Called	Residential Building Permits;
Source	Census Bureau (latest release)

PPI m/m

FF Alert	Source changed series calculation formula as of this release;
Source	Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures	Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 14, 2014
FF Notes	Tends to have more impact when it's released ahead of the CPI data because the reports are significantly correlated;

Core PPI m/m

FF Alert	Source changed series calculation formula as of this release;
Source	Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures	Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers, excluding food, energy, and trade;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Mar 14, 2014
FF Notes	Food, energy, and trade prices make up about 40% of overall PPI which tends to mute the importance of the Core data;
Also Called	Core Finished Goods PPI, Core PPI for Final Demand;