Gold Silver Copper Crude- Commodity Technical Outlook: 24 Oct

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1323	1304	1352	1361
SILVER	22.24	21.69	23.08	23.38
COPPER	3.2401	3.2128	3.3146	3.3618
CRUDE	95.91	94.97	98.04	99.23

Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

GOLD
Despite weaker equities, precious metals were lower today after  yesterday’s advance. Gold opened lower at 1332.00/1333.00 and  bottomed at 1329.50/1330.50 by midmorning. Price traded to a  high of 1336.75/1337.75 later in the session, before closing at  1334.00/1335.00.
Gold has managed to hold onto most of yesterdays strong gains at  current 1334. Gold initially dipped lower but found support at  former pivot level 1329. Topside resistance is seen at 1344 with  next move to 1364 marking the 61.8% retracement of the 1433 to  1253 down move. Overall, we are bullish Gold looking for a move  to 1433 while the metal holds above 1300.
Gold ended with small gains but seen under pressure as a slight recovery in the dollar prompted some investors to cash in gains.
Weak U.S. jobs data cemented expectations for the Federal Reserve to keep its stimulus measures in place until next year.
Gold premiums in India hit $120 to London prices as the domestic market failed to get enough supply to meet strong festive demand.
SILVER
Silver was also lower, opening at 22.56/22.61. The metal touched  a high of 22.70/22.75 early on, before easing off to bottom at  22.52/22.57. Silver closed the day at 22.58/22.63.

Silver is down on the day at current 22.58. We see key support for  Silver at 22.48 which was the reactionary high of our "Double  Bottom" off of 20.60. We see a move into the $24s while the metal  closes above 22.48. Trailing stop losses would be triggered below  $22.
Gold Silver ratio is closing higher at 59.08. We are bearish the ratio  since it broke trend line support near 59.50. We see risk of a drop  in the ratio toward August low 57.15 with only a close back above  59.59 shifting the view to neutral.
Silver dropped as investors sold contracts to lock in gains from a sharp rally which prices during the previous session.
Silver have been well-supported in recent sessions amid speculation Fed will maintain its stimulus program well into 2014 to support the economy.
Holdings at ishares silver trust gained by 74.92 tonnes to 10442.30 tonnes from 10367.38 tonnes.
COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for December delivery traded at USD3.307 a pound during European morning trade, down 0.85%.
Copper prices fell to a session low of USD3.301 a pound earlier.
The December contract rose to USD3.355 a pound on Tuesday, the strongest level since September 20, before settling at USD3.335 a pound, up 0.97%.
Copper futures retreated from the previous session’s five-week high on Wednesday, as investors looked ahead to manufacturing data out of China, set for release on Thursday.
China is the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for almost 40% of world consumption last year.
Copper fell as fears of tighter monetary policy in China outweighed speculation that tepid U.S. jobs data will deter Fed from tapering its stimulus this year.
While the prospect of extended U.S. monetary stimulus is supportive for metals, sluggish U.S. growth is doing little to improve copper’s demand outlook.
Copper prices hit the highest since Sept. 20 on Tuesday at $7,350 a tonne but have been in a broader $7,000-$7,420 band since early August.
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for December delivery rose 0.41% to USD97.26 per barrel in Asian trading Thursday. The December contract settled lower by 1.46% at USD96.86 per barrel on Wednesday.
Crude sold-off Wednesday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 5.2 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 18, above expectations for an increase of 3 million barrels, stoking concerns U.S. supply is too high and demand not strong enough.
Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 379.8 million barrels, the highest level since June. The report also showed that total motor gasoline inventories declined by 1.8 million barrels, compared to expectations for a drop of 250,000 barrels.
Oil futures traded higher in the early part of Thursday’s Asian session as traders await another key data point out of China.
Crude oil fell after a government report showed that U.S. oil supplies rose more-than-expected in the week ended October 18.
The U.S. EIA said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 5.2 million barrels.
Over the past four weeks, inventories have risen by 22 million barrels, the biggest four-week build since April 2012 and the second largest since February 2009.

Global Economic Data

TIME	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
6.00 P.M	Trade Balance	-39.1B	-39.4B	STRONG
6.30 P.M	Flash Manufacturing PMI	52.8	52.8	MEDIUM
7.00 P.M	New Home Sales	421K	427K	STRONG
8.00 P.M	Natural Gas Storage	77B	80B	LOW

Trade Balance

FF Alert	Release date delayed by 16 days due to the US government shutdown;
Source	Bureau of Economic Analysis (latest release)
Measures	Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 35 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Nov 14, 2013
FF Notes	A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported;
Why Traders Care	Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers;

Flash Manufacturing PMI

Source	Markit (latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, around 3 weeks into the current month;
Next Release	Nov 22, 2013
FF Notes	Data is given to Thomson Reuters subscribers 2 minutes before the public release time listed on the calendar - early market reaction is usually a result of trades made by these subscribers. Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Flash release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are 2 versions of this report released about a week apart – Flash and Final. The Flash release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact. Source first released in May 2012;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy;
Derived Via	Survey of about 600 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories;

New Home Sales

Source	Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures	Annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 25 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Nov 27, 2013
FF Notes	While this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12);
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a new home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, furniture and appliances are purchased for the home, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction;
Also Called	New Residential Sales;
Source	Census Bureau (latest release)

GOLD SIVER COPPER CRUDE- Commdity Technical Outlook: 23rd Oct

Technical Levels

	Support 1	Support 2	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
Gold	1323	1304	1352	1361
Silver	22.24	21.69	23.08	23.38
Copper	3.3026	3.2698	3.3616	3.3878
Crude	96.08	94.67	99.21	100.62

Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

SILVER

Silver jumped alongside gold. Price opened at today’s low of 22.14/22.19, before advancing to a high of 22.95/23.00 on the payrolls data. The metal held on to the gains as USD declined, closing the day at 22.77/22.82.

Silver is closing at 22.77. This is the 5th consecutive "Up" day for Silver since it was rejected off of key 20.60. The break of 22.48 confirms a "Double Bottom" off 20.60 and sets measured move at 24.36. We see initial resistance at 23.40 the mid September high.

The Gold Silver ratio extended yesterdays technical losses to current 58.89. The break of 59.05 has opened the door for a return to the August low 57.12. Resistance is seen at former trend line support at 59.60. Only a close back above that level would dampen our enthusiasm for the down side.

Silver rose after the disappointing data fuelled expectations that the Fed will delay tapering its stimulus program until next year.

The U.S. Department of Labor said that non-farm payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 148,000 in September.

Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 23.97 tonnes to 10367.38 tonnes from 10391.35 tonnes.

GOLD

Gold jumped today on the back of weaker than expected US Non farm Payrolls. After opening at 1318.00/1319.00 and touching a low of 1313.00/1314.00 early on, the metal vaulted to a high of 1344.00/1345.00 before noon. Price stayed at this level for the remainder of the session, closing up almost 2% on the day, at 1341.75/1342.75.

Gold is closing higher today at 1341. The metal finally broke key technical pivot of 1330 and has so far traded to 1345. We see today's move as bullish confirmation. The impulsive price action has initial target 1364 (61.8% of 1433 to 1542 move). The measured channel move is seen at 1381. Only a close back below 1330 would neutralize our positive outlook.

Gold rose after weak U.S. jobs figures raised expectations the Federal Reserve will keep its stimulus undiminished well into 2014.

The U.S. dollar came under heavy selling pressure following the downbeat jobs report, further boosting gold prices.

SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 6.60 tonnes to 878.32 tonnes.

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for December delivery traded at USD3.300 a pound during European morning trade, down 0.1%.
Copper prices traded in a range between USD3.296 a pound, the daily low and a session high of USD3.310 a pound. The December contract settled 0.14% higher at USD3.303 a pound on Monday.

Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.271 a pound, the low from October 17 and resistance at USD3.325 a pound, the high from October 16.

Copper futures swung between small gains and losses in cautious trade on Tuesday, as investors awaited U.S. employment data later in the day for an indication on how soon the Federal Reserve may start to reduce its stimulus program.

Copper rose as the dollar fell and after the first U.S. jobs report in nearly two months suggested the economy had lost steam.

Fed officials are likely to hold off any decision on scaling back the U.S. central bank’s bond buying until the extent of the economic damage.

The premiums paid by buyers over the cash LME copper prices to secure physical metal are still lower than the four-year highs of $220 seen in July.

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for December delivery lost 0.11% to USD98.19 per barrel in Asian trading Wednesday. The December contract settled lower by 1.38% at USD98.30 per barrel on Tuesday.

Oil was pressured after the U.S. Labor Department said the U.S. economy added 148,000 jobs in September, well below expectations for an increase of 180,000. 

The previous month’s figure was revised up to a gain of 193,000 from a previously reported increase of 169,000. July's figure was revised down to 89,000 from 104,000. The unemployment rate in the world’s largest economy fell to 7.2% from 7.3%.

Oil futures continued trading lower during Wednesday’s Asian, following a weak showing Tuesday at the hands of some disappointing data points. .

Crude oil dropped after the U.S. September jobs report disappointed investors and painted a picture of U.S. economy still battling headwinds along its road to recovery.

Saudi Arabia is pumping over 10 million bpd, and plays a key role in balancing oil markets to keep prices stable.

Today Crude oil inventories: EXP: 2.7M PREV: 4.0M. Actual is at 8.00PM.

 

Global Economic Data

Time	Data	PRV	EXP	Impact
6.00PM	Import Prices m/m	0.0%	0.3%	Medium
6.30PM	HPI m/m	1.0%	0.8%	Low
8.00PM	Crude Oil Inventories	4.0M	2.7M	Medium

Import Prices m/m

Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures	Change in the price of imported goods and services purchased domestically;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 13 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Nov 13, 2013
FF Notes	This is the earliest government-released inflation data;
Why Traders Care	It contributes to inflation for businesses and consumers, especially those who rely heavily on imported goods and services;
Also Called	Import Price Index;

HPI m/m

Source	FHFA (latest release)
Measures	Change in the purchase price of homes with mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 55 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Nov 26, 2013
FF Notes	Source began m/m frequency in Mar 2008;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of the housing industry's health because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity;
Acro Expand	House Price Index (HPI);

Crude Oil Inventories

Source	Energy Information Administration (latest release)
Measures	Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week;
Usual Effect	No consistent effect - there are both inflationary and growth implications;
Frequency	Released weekly, 4 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Oct 30, 2013
FF Notes	While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada's sizable energy sector;
Why Traders Care	It influences the price of petroleum products which affects inflation, but also impacts growth as many industries rely on oil to produce goods;
Also Called	Crude Stocks, Crude Levels;
Acro Expand	Energy Information Administration (EIA);

Gold, Silver, Copper, Crude Commodity Technical Outllok: 22nd Oct

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1311	1301	1328	1333
SILVER	21.97	21.67	22.45	22.93
COPPER	3.2865	3.2695	3.3160	3.3285
CRUDE	98.48	97.74	99.75	100.70

Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 

GOLD
Gold traded flat on the day. The metal opened the week at  1315.00/1316.00, touched a low of 1313.50/1314.50 early on,  before trading to a high of 1319.50/1320.50. Price consolidated as  equities and USD both held steady, closing the day at  1316.00/1317.00
Gold closed at 1,316 today. This is our third day closing around the  current levels. The critical topside level remains 1,330 from high  two weeks ago. We believe a close above this level on the weekly  chart will bring in fresh buying looking for a move back toward  1433. We see close support at 1,304 from break of two month  bear channel (line today comes in at 1,297). While the metal closes  above that line we see the risk of a break to the topside.
Gold rose supported by expectations Fed would hold off curbing its economic stimulus while US eyes a more lasting fix to its budget problems.
The U.S. budget deal last week extends the U.S. government’s borrowing authority through Feb. 7 and restores federal funding through Jan. 15
Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, fell 10.51 tonnes to 871.72 tonnes on Monday — its biggest fall since early July.
SILVER
Silver was higher overnight, opening today at 22.16/22.21 and  trading to a brief low of 22.08/22.13. The metal advanced to a  high of 22.31/22.36 by midmorning, amid quiet equities, before  closing at 22.25/22.30, up from last Friday’s close.
Silver made a nice move higher to close at 22.25. The October high  of 22.48 is in sight. It is interesting that the metal bounced  aggressively last week off of key technical support 20.60. A break  of 22.48 would confirm a "Double Bottom" is in place. Measured  move target would be 24.36.
Gold Silver ratio broke a key trend line support at 59.54 and has  fallen to current 59.18. We have been bearish this ratio waiting for  this move. We see fresh selling on a break of October low 59.05  with first stop the August low of 57.12. We are bearish the ratio  while it holds below Fridays high of 60.36.
Silver rose as concerns over the impact of 16-day shutdown fuelled expectations that Fed would delay plans for rolling back its asset purchase program
Investors were awaiting key U.S. data points later in the week in order to determine the impact of the government shutdown on the Fed’s stimulus program.
The central bank is scheduled to meet October 29-30 to review the economy and assess policy.
COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for December delivery traded at USD3.307 a pound during European morning trade, up 0.25%.
Copper prices traded in a range between USD3.282 a pound, the daily low and a session high of USD3.311 a pound. The December contract settled 0.06% higher at USD3.299 a pound on Friday.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.271 a pound, the low from October 17 and resistance at USD3.325 a pound, the high from October 16.
Copper futures inched higher on Monday, as investors shifted their focus from the resolution of the U.S. government showdown to the duration of the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying program.
Copper inched up as investors shifted their focus from the resolution of U.S. government showdown to the duration of Fed bond-buying program.
China’s refined copper imports in September hit a 19-month high, surging by 32% MoM, and 18% YoY.
China’s economy expanded at an annual rate of 7.8% in the third quarter, in line with expectations and up from 7.5% in the three months to June.
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for December delivery fell 0.13% to USD99.55 per barrel in Asian trading Tuesday. The December contract settled lower by 1.41% at USD99.68 per barrel on Monday.
Oil was hampered by Monday by data that showed an increase in oil inventories. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 4 million barrels in the week ended October 4, well above expectations for an increase of 2.2 million barrels.
Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 374.5 million barrels, the highest level since July. The report also showed that total motor gasoline inventories declined by 2.6 million barrels, compared to expectations for an increase of 0.1 million barrels.
Oil futures traded lower during Tuesday’s Asian session, continuing a bearish tone set in Monday trade.
Crude oil dropped after official data revealed that U.S. crude supplies rose more than expected.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 4 million barrels
Saudi Arabia increased its oil exports by 325,000 bpd in August from July to 7.795 million bpd, official data showed.

Global Economic Data

TIME	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
6.00pm	Non-Farm Employment Change	169K	182K	STRONG
6.00pm	Unemployment Rate	7.3%	7.3%	STRONG
6.30pm	TIC Long-Term Purchase	31.1B	30.9B	MEDIUM
8.00pm	Natural Gas Storage	90B	81B	LOW

Non-Farm Employment Change

FF Alert	Release date delayed by 18 days due to the US government shutdown;
Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures	Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends;
Next Release	Nov 8, 2013
FF Notes	This is vital economic data released shortly after the month ends. The combination of importance and earliness makes for hefty market impacts;
Why Traders Care	Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;

Unemployment Rate

FF Alert	Release date delayed by 18 days due to the US government shutdown;
Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures	Percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month;
Usual Effect	Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends;
Next Release	Nov 8, 2013
Why Traders Care	Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions;
Also Called	Jobless Rate

TIC Long-Term Purchase

FF Alert	Release date delayed by 6 days due to the US government shutdown;
Source	Department of the Treasury (latest release)
Measures	Difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by US citizens and US long-term securities purchased by foreigners during the reported period;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 45 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Nov 15, 2013
FF Notes	This data represents the balance of domestic and foreign investment - for example, if foreigners purchased $100 billion in US stocks and bonds, and the US purchased $30 billion in foreign stocks and bonds, the net reading would be 70.0B. The market impact tends to be significant but varies from month to month;
Why Traders Care	Demand for domestic securities and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to purchase the nation's securities;
Also Called	Net Long-term Securities Transactions;

Gold, Silver, Copper & Crude Commodity Technical Outlook: 21st Oct

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1312	1301	1328	1333
SILVER	21.29	20.64	22.39	22.84
COPPER	3.2890	3.2706	3.3180	3.3285
CRUDE	100.60	99.97	102.14	103.07

Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

 GOLD
Precious metals held steady today, holding on to yesterday’s gains, as  equities and USD both traded flat. Gold opened at 1317.50/1318.50  and traded to a high of 1320.50/1321.50 early on. Price touched a  low of 1311.50/1312.50 in the afternoon, shortly before closing the  week at 1313.50/1314.50.
Gold closed higher this week at 1314, forming a bullish engulfing  pattern in the candlestick charts. A bullish engulfing pattern also (in  hindsight) predicted the move off the low in June at 1180, prior to its  move up to the 1433 high. The next resistance is at 1337, which is  the 38.2% retracement of the last rally. Support is at the week’s low  of 1251. The bullish pattern is an encouraging sign that the bear  channel of the past 2 months may be about to turn, though it is still  early.
Gold climbed to the Life time High as Rupee dropped and political tension over Syria increased demand for the precious metal as a store of value.
Western powers told the Syrian opposition to expect a strike against Syria President Bashar al-Assad’s forces within days.
SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, said its holdings rose 0.10 percent, or 0.90 tonnes, to 921.03 tonnes.
SILVER

Silver opened at 21.89/21.94 and traded to a high of 22.02/22.07  early in the session. The metal held flat for the remainder of the  session, with a low at 21.83/21.88, and closing at 21.88/21.93.
Silver also closed higher this week in a bullish engulfing pattern,  closing at 21.93. The RSI pattern in silver is also encouraging, as it  tested and held the low-40 area. Following technical analyst  Constance Brown, RSI should travel from around 40 to around 80 in a  bull market. Silver’s RSI bottomed at 19.20, moved higher, then  tested and held the 40 level. The next resistance in silver is at 22.48,  the 38.2% retracement of the June to August rally. Support is at the  weekly low at 20.50. Similar to gold, silver is making early signs of  having turned, which should be confirmed with a breach of the next  resistance level.
The gold-silver ratio closed lower this week at 60.12, trading inside  the last week. The ratio has been making higher lows since the  October low of 58.94, but has yet to break out of its 2-month  consolidation. We still see the risk as lower, but will have to wait for  a breakout to get a better sense of the immediate direction.
Silver rose as weakness in rupee supported amid growing speculation the U.S. was moving closer to taking military action against Syria’s government.
An early end to stimulus could hurthankst precious metals by drawing investors away from non-interest-bearing assets.
Holdings at ishares silver trust gained by 44.99 tonnes to 10600.69 tonnes from 10555.70 tonnes.
COPPER
Copper prices fell to a session low of USD3.304 a pound earlier in the day.
Copper settled up 4.34% after reports showed gains in US home prices and Chinese industrial profits, adding to signs of improving demand in the world’s two biggest users of the metal. While support seen from the rupee weakness which closed at a fresh all-time low of 66.24 against the US dollar it was the worst percentage fall in over a decade.
Copper crossed 500 mark as support seen due to weakness in rupee while a potential western strike on Syria made investor bets more cautious.
The economy of China is showing clear signs of stabilisation, helped by policy support and some improvement in global demand
In the US, recent data on durable goods, single family home sales and business spending on capital goods have been disappointing.
CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for December delivery were flat at USD101.12 per barrel in Asian trading Monday. The December contract settled higher by 0.24% at USD101.11 per barrel last Friday.
Last week, New York-traded oil futures lost 0.4%, the fifth loss in the past six weeks. Oil futures were likely to find support at USD100.21 a barrel, the low from October 17 and resistance at USD103.15 a barrel, the high from October 16.
Later Monday, the U.S. releases new home sales data and on Tuesday, the Labor Department reveals the September non-farm payrolls, two reports that could be pivotal for oil traders over the near-term. The September jobs data was delayed because of the U.S. government shutdown.
Oil futures were little changed during Monday’s Asian session ahead of what could potentially be a big week for U.S. economic data releases. The U.S. is the world’s largest oil consumer.
Crude oil gained as tensions mounted in Syria, heightening geopolitical and crude oil supply risk in the Middle East.
Crude oil prices were also boosted as protesters stopped production at oil fields in Western Libya.
U.S. crude stocks rose last week while gasoline inventories declined and distillate stocks increased, API data showed.

Global Economic Data

TIME	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
5.30pm	FOMC Member Evans Speaks			Medium
7.30pm	Existing Home Sales	5.48M	5.31M	Strong
8.00pm	Crude Oil Inventories	6.8M	3.4M	Medium

FOMC Member Evans Speaks

Description	Due to speak in a CNBC interview;
Source	Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (latest release)
Speaker	Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans;
Usual Effect	More hawkish than expected = Good for currency;
FF Notes	FOMC voting member Sep 2007 - Dec 2007, 2009, 2011 and 2013;
Why Traders Care	Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;
Acro Expand	Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);
Description	Due to speak in a CNBC interview;

Existing Home Sales

Source	National Association of Realtors (latest release)
Measures	Annualized number of residential buildings that were sold during the previous month, excluding new construction;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 20 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Nov 20, 2013
FF Notes	While this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12). Existing homes make up the majority of total sales and therefore tend to have more impact than New Home Sales;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, renovations are done by the new owners, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction;
Also Called	Home Resales;

Crude Oil Inventories

Source	Energy Information Administration (latest release)
Measures	Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week;
Usual Effect	No consistent effect - there are both inflationary and growth implications;
Frequency	Released weekly, 4 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Oct 23, 2013
FF Notes	While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada's sizable energy sector;
Why Traders Care	It influences the price of petroleum products which affects inflation, but also impacts growth as many industries rely on oil to produce goods;
Also Called	Crude Stocks, Crude Levels;
Acro Expand	Energy Information Administration (EIA);

Gold, Silver, Copper & Crude Commodity Technical Outlook: 17 Oct

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1273	1263	1287	1302
SILVER	21.17	20.98	21.50	21.63
COPPER	3.2713	3.2346	3.3368	3.3656
CRUDE	101.03	99.78	103.25	104.22

Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

GOLD
Gold opened  at 1280.25/1281.25 and dropped to a low of 1268.75/1269.75 by  midday. Despite higher equities, the metal rallied in the afternoon  to peak at 1282.75/1283.75 on short covering, before closing near  the high, at 1282.00/1283.00.
Gold traded nearly unchanged today, closing at 1282, and  invalidating yesterday’s potential hammer. Support is at the recent  1251 low, and resistance lies between 1301 and 1307, where two  Fibonacci retracement levels converge (1301 is the 50%  retracement of the 2008 to 2011 uptrend, 1307 is the 50%  retracement of the June-August uptrend.) The target on a bearish  head-and-shoulders pattern is around 1108.
Gold gained as U.S. lawmakers scrambled to come up with a bipartisan agreement to increase the federal debt ceiling before a Thursday deadline.
Gold premiums in India hit a record $100 an ounce due to a shortage of supplies to meet festival demand.
SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 3.6 tonnes to 885.53 tonnes.
SILVER
Silver held up as well, trading higher for the session. Price opened  at 21.18/21.23 and touched a low of 21.10/21.15 in early morning.  Price recovered in the afternoon alongside gold to a high of  21.41/21.46, before closing the day at 21.35/21.40.
Silver was also nearly unchanged today at 21.35, invalidating  yesterday’s potential bullish hammer. The past 3 sessions have  been “spinning tops”, i.e., candles with little to no difference  between the open and the close. This is a sign of indecision in the  markets. Support is at 19.85, the 76.4% retracement of the last  rally, with resistance at 21.67, the 50% retracement level. 
The gold-silver ratio continues to drift slightly higher, currently at  60.06. The ratio is overdue for a breakout, as we have seen the  last 7 sessions trade inside of the October 7th session in the  candlestick charts. The ratio is gaining in bullish momentum;  though remains within a consolidation.
Silver rose as markets continued to focus on U.S. budget talks amid growing fears of a potential sovereign default.
Ratings agency Fitch placed its triple-A rating on U.S. on “rating watch negative”, saying political impasse has undermined confidence in U.S. economic policy.
Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 53.95 tonnes to 10391.35 tonnes from 10445.30 tonnes.
COPPER
Copper prices fell to a session low of USD3.266 a pound earlier in the day. The December contract settled 0.14% higher at USD3.307 a pound on Tuesday.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.244 a pound, the low from October 14 and resistance at USD3.315 a pound, the high from October 14.
On Tuesday, Fitch ratings agency placed its AAA-rating on the U.S. on “rating watch negative” and said a downgrade is possible.
Copper futures fell sharply on Wednesday, as the U.S. moved closer to a deadline to raise the national debt ceiling or risk default.
Copper fell as the U.S. moved closer to a deadline to raise the national debt ceiling or risk default.
Fitch ratings agency placed its AAA-rating on the U.S. on “rating watch negative” and said a downgrade is possible.
Trade data showed that inbound Chinese copper shipments totaled 457,847 metric tons last month, the highest since March 2012.
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for November delivery inched down 0.01% to USD102.28 per barrel in Asian trading Thursday. The November contract settled higher by 1.07% at USD102.29 per barrel on Wednesday.
Oil prices were supported he Federal Reserve reported in its Beige Book, which analyzes current economic conditions, that the U.S. economy expanded at a moderate pace from September into October, though the U.S. central bank said fiscal uncertainty was dampening recovery.
Oil futures traded slightly lower during Thursday Asian session despite news the U.S. Senate has reached a debt deal that will reopen the government there and avert a debt ceiling debacle.
Crude oil gains as it appeared Congress was close to an 11th-hour deal to raise the government’s debt ceiling and prevent a default.
Crude oil stocks rose 5.9 million barrels, data from American Petroleum Institute showed, more than double the forecast for a 2.2 million barrel.
Oil traders continued to monitor talks between Western diplomats and Iranian officials in Geneva.

Global Economic Data

Time	Data	Prv	Exp	impact
6.00 pm	Unemployment Claims	374K	357K	STRONG
7.30 pm	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index	22.3	15.4	STRONG
10.15 pm	FOMC Member Evans Speaks			MEDIUM
10.15 pm	FOMC Member George Speaks			MEDIUM

Unemployment Claims

Source	Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures	The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
Usual Effect	Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Oct 24, 2013
FF Notes	This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;
Why Traders Care	Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions;
Also Called	Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

Source	Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia(latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release	Nov 21, 2013
FF Notes	Above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment;
Acro Expand	Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);

Comex Technical Report for GOLD SILVER, COPER & CRUDE: 10th Oct

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1295	1283	1318	1330
SILVER	21.62	21.35	22.28	22.67
COPPER	3.2011	3.1713	3.2796	3.3283
CRUDE	100.61	99.61	103.18	104.70

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2 

GOLD

Precious metals sold off in pre-market trading as USD rallied from previous lows on news of Janet Yellen’s nomination as the next chief of the U.S. Central Bank. Gold and silver lost their luster as investor confidence in the precious metals as a safe haven sank on the metals poor performance since the U.S. government shutdown.  

Gold slumped before opening today’s session at 1305.00/1306.00. Price reverted to a high at 1310.00/1311.00, before tumbling again to bottom at 1294.25/1295.25. A rally in the afternoon brought the metal to a close at 1306.75/1307.75. The recovery was interrupted in after-market trading, with the release of FOMC minutes showing the decision to not taper in September was a close call, indicating that tapering could still be on the table.

Gold moved lower today to current 1306. The inability to retest resent highs of toward 1350 is a disappointment. This move started up at 1433 Aug 28 with lower highs seen at 1416, 1374, 1348 and yesterdays 1329. We see Fibonacci support at 1278 from 61.8% pullback of 1181 to 1433 up move. This 1278 was also the Oct 2 low. We see 1278 and 1329 now the key pivot levels with a break of either side opening up a $35 move.

Gold dropped as the U.S. dollar was boosted by news that Janet Yellen is to be nominated to head the Federal Reserve.

Bullion dropped after news Fed’s shock decision last month not to reduce its support for U.S. economy was a “relatively close call” for policymakers.

The SPDR Gold Trust has seen outflows of nearly 8 tonnes since the U.S. government shutdown on October 1.

SILVER

Silver declined alongside gold and opened today at 21.86/21.91. Price traded to a session high of 21.97/22.02, before reversing to touch a low of 21.72/21.77 by midmorning as equities advanced. The metal closed the day at 21.90/21.95.

Silver is closing lower at 21.90. The metal has been constructive the past week moving from 20.65 to yesterdays 22.48. Today's close is very close to of the last 3 weeks... it seems the metal is having a hard time deviating too far away from 21.70.

The Gold Silver ratio spiked higher today to 59.71. We have been bearish the ratio since the key reversal at 62.14 on October 1. The ratio held the 61.8% Fibo of our 57.12 to 62.14 up move at 59.04. We see 59.04 as key pivot for a 100% move to 57.12. Only a close back above 60.22 would shift our view neutral.

Silver fell amid ongoing uncertainty over the U.S. government shutdown and the upcoming debt ceiling debate.

Congress faces an October 17 deadline to increase the $16.7 trillion borrowing limit to avert the risk of a default on U.S. Debt.

The gold/silver ratio edged off this week’s low of 59.22, its weakest in nearly a month, as silver underperformed.

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New YorkMercantile Exchange, copper futures for December delivery traded at USD3.268 a pound during European morning trade, down 0.75%.

Copper prices fell to a session low of USD3.259 a pound earlier, the weakest level since October 4. The December contract settled 0.12% lower at USD3.292 a pound on Tuesday.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.249 a pound, the low from October 1 and resistance at USD3.321 a pound, the high from October 8.

Copper futures declined on Wednesday to trade near a one-week low, as a partial U.S. government shutdown dragged on into a second week, with few signs of progress towards a resolution ahead of an October 17 deadline to avoid a U.S. sovereign default.

Copper dropped as a partial U.S. government shutdown dragged on into a second week, with few signs of progress towards a resolution ahead of an October 17 deadline.

Investors continued to monitor negotiations over a U.S. budget impasse that has kept the federal government shut down since October 1.

Copper prices came under additional pressure after the International Monetary Fund lowered its 2013 growth forecast for China to 7.6%.

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for November delivery inched down 0.04% to USD101.57 per barrel in Asian trading Thursday. The November contract settled lower by 1.82% at USD101.61 per barrel on Wednesday.

Oil futures were likely to find support at USD101.06 a barrel, the low from Sept. 30, and resistance at USD104.06 a barrel, Tuesday's high.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 6.8 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 4, well above expectations for an increase of 1.5 million barrels.

Oil futures traded modestly lower during Thursday’s Asian as traders in the region focused on a discouraging batch of inventories data out of the U.S.

Crude oil dropped after U.S. lawmakers made little progress to end a budget impasse that threatens to hurt investor confidence and curb demand.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 6.8 million barrels.

IMF warned that possible supply disruptions may push oil prices as high as $150 per barrel next year in two out of three scenarios described in its Outlook.

Global Economic Data

TIME	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
6.00 P.M	Unemployment Claims	308K	307K	STRONG
7.15 P.M	FOMC Member Bullard Speaks	5.5M	0.9M	MEDIUM
8.00 P.M	Natural Gas Storage	101B	96B	LOW
10.31 P.M	30-y Bond Auction	3.82	2.4	LOW

Unemployment Claims

Source	Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures	The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
Usual Effect	Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Oct 17, 2013
FF Notes	This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;
Why Traders Care	Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions;
Also Called	Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;

FOMC Member Bullard Speaks

Description	Due to deliver opening remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank's Annual Research Conference, in St Louis. Audience questions expected;
Source	Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (latest release)
Speaker	Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard;
Usual Effect	More hawkish than expected = Good for currency;
FF Notes	FOMC voting member 2010 and 2013;
Why Traders Care	Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;
Acro Expand	Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);
Description	Due to deliver opening remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank's Annual Research Conference, in St Louis. Audience questions expected;
Source	Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (latest release)

Natural Gas Storage

Source	Energy Information Administration (latest release)
Measures	Change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in underground storage during the past week;
Usual Effect	No consistent effect - there are both inflationary and growth implications;
Frequency	Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Oct 17, 2013
FF Notes	While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada's sizable energy sector;
Also Called	Nat Gas Stocks, Nat Gas Inventories, Working Gas;
Acro Expand	Energy Information Administration (EIA);