Comex Technical Report for GOLD SILVER, COPER & CRUDE: 10th Oct

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1295	1283	1318	1330
SILVER	21.62	21.35	22.28	22.67
COPPER	3.2011	3.1713	3.2796	3.3283
CRUDE	100.61	99.61	103.18	104.70

Commodity Contract S2 S1 R1 R2 

GOLD

Precious metals sold off in pre-market trading as USD rallied from previous lows on news of Janet Yellen’s nomination as the next chief of the U.S. Central Bank. Gold and silver lost their luster as investor confidence in the precious metals as a safe haven sank on the metals poor performance since the U.S. government shutdown.  

Gold slumped before opening today’s session at 1305.00/1306.00. Price reverted to a high at 1310.00/1311.00, before tumbling again to bottom at 1294.25/1295.25. A rally in the afternoon brought the metal to a close at 1306.75/1307.75. The recovery was interrupted in after-market trading, with the release of FOMC minutes showing the decision to not taper in September was a close call, indicating that tapering could still be on the table.

Gold moved lower today to current 1306. The inability to retest resent highs of toward 1350 is a disappointment. This move started up at 1433 Aug 28 with lower highs seen at 1416, 1374, 1348 and yesterdays 1329. We see Fibonacci support at 1278 from 61.8% pullback of 1181 to 1433 up move. This 1278 was also the Oct 2 low. We see 1278 and 1329 now the key pivot levels with a break of either side opening up a $35 move.

Gold dropped as the U.S. dollar was boosted by news that Janet Yellen is to be nominated to head the Federal Reserve.

Bullion dropped after news Fed’s shock decision last month not to reduce its support for U.S. economy was a “relatively close call” for policymakers.

The SPDR Gold Trust has seen outflows of nearly 8 tonnes since the U.S. government shutdown on October 1.

SILVER

Silver declined alongside gold and opened today at 21.86/21.91. Price traded to a session high of 21.97/22.02, before reversing to touch a low of 21.72/21.77 by midmorning as equities advanced. The metal closed the day at 21.90/21.95.

Silver is closing lower at 21.90. The metal has been constructive the past week moving from 20.65 to yesterdays 22.48. Today's close is very close to of the last 3 weeks... it seems the metal is having a hard time deviating too far away from 21.70.

The Gold Silver ratio spiked higher today to 59.71. We have been bearish the ratio since the key reversal at 62.14 on October 1. The ratio held the 61.8% Fibo of our 57.12 to 62.14 up move at 59.04. We see 59.04 as key pivot for a 100% move to 57.12. Only a close back above 60.22 would shift our view neutral.

Silver fell amid ongoing uncertainty over the U.S. government shutdown and the upcoming debt ceiling debate.

Congress faces an October 17 deadline to increase the $16.7 trillion borrowing limit to avert the risk of a default on U.S. Debt.

The gold/silver ratio edged off this week’s low of 59.22, its weakest in nearly a month, as silver underperformed.

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New YorkMercantile Exchange, copper futures for December delivery traded at USD3.268 a pound during European morning trade, down 0.75%.

Copper prices fell to a session low of USD3.259 a pound earlier, the weakest level since October 4. The December contract settled 0.12% lower at USD3.292 a pound on Tuesday.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.249 a pound, the low from October 1 and resistance at USD3.321 a pound, the high from October 8.

Copper futures declined on Wednesday to trade near a one-week low, as a partial U.S. government shutdown dragged on into a second week, with few signs of progress towards a resolution ahead of an October 17 deadline to avoid a U.S. sovereign default.

Copper dropped as a partial U.S. government shutdown dragged on into a second week, with few signs of progress towards a resolution ahead of an October 17 deadline.

Investors continued to monitor negotiations over a U.S. budget impasse that has kept the federal government shut down since October 1.

Copper prices came under additional pressure after the International Monetary Fund lowered its 2013 growth forecast for China to 7.6%.

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for November delivery inched down 0.04% to USD101.57 per barrel in Asian trading Thursday. The November contract settled lower by 1.82% at USD101.61 per barrel on Wednesday.

Oil futures were likely to find support at USD101.06 a barrel, the low from Sept. 30, and resistance at USD104.06 a barrel, Tuesday's high.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 6.8 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 4, well above expectations for an increase of 1.5 million barrels.

Oil futures traded modestly lower during Thursday’s Asian as traders in the region focused on a discouraging batch of inventories data out of the U.S.

Crude oil dropped after U.S. lawmakers made little progress to end a budget impasse that threatens to hurt investor confidence and curb demand.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 6.8 million barrels.

IMF warned that possible supply disruptions may push oil prices as high as $150 per barrel next year in two out of three scenarios described in its Outlook.

Global Economic Data

TIME	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
6.00 P.M	Unemployment Claims	308K	307K	STRONG
7.15 P.M	FOMC Member Bullard Speaks	5.5M	0.9M	MEDIUM
8.00 P.M	Natural Gas Storage	101B	96B	LOW
10.31 P.M	30-y Bond Auction	3.82	2.4	LOW

Unemployment Claims

Source	Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures	The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
Usual Effect	Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Oct 17, 2013
FF Notes	This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;
Why Traders Care	Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions;
Also Called	Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;

FOMC Member Bullard Speaks

Description	Due to deliver opening remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank's Annual Research Conference, in St Louis. Audience questions expected;
Source	Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (latest release)
Speaker	Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard;
Usual Effect	More hawkish than expected = Good for currency;
FF Notes	FOMC voting member 2010 and 2013;
Why Traders Care	Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;
Acro Expand	Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);
Description	Due to deliver opening remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank's Annual Research Conference, in St Louis. Audience questions expected;
Source	Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (latest release)

Natural Gas Storage

Source	Energy Information Administration (latest release)
Measures	Change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in underground storage during the past week;
Usual Effect	No consistent effect - there are both inflationary and growth implications;
Frequency	Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Oct 17, 2013
FF Notes	While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada's sizable energy sector;
Also Called	Nat Gas Stocks, Nat Gas Inventories, Working Gas;
Acro Expand	Energy Information Administration (EIA);