Technical Levels
|
SUPPORT 1 |
SUPPORT 2 |
RESISTANCE 1 |
RESISTANCE 2 |
| GOLD |
1232 |
1219 |
1254 |
1263 |
| SILVER |
19.60 |
19.15 |
20.34 |
20.64 |
| COPPER |
3.3620 |
3.3480 |
3.3835 |
3.3910 |
| CRUDE
|
96.56 |
95.64 |
98.04 |
98.60 |
Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
GOLD
Gold moved higher overnight to open at 1236.00/1237.00. It touched a low of 1233.00/1234.00 following better-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data. The metal then surged to a high of 1251.50/1252.50 on dollar weakness and gains in crude oil, which led to short-covering ahead of the FOMC meeting starting tomorrow. The metal came under selling pressure later in the afternoon to finally close at 1244.50/1245.50.
Gold made a small gain today, closing at 1244, but the last two sessions have still traded within Thursday’s range. The metal has essentially traded sideways since November 21st, within a 1210 (
support) and 1268 (
resistance) range. The trend remains bearish, and well away from ‘oversold’ levels.
Gold ended lower as
investors nervously eyed Fed’s last policy meeting to gauge whether the central bank would stick to its monetary stimulus.
Fed policymakers gather for the last time in 2013 for a two-day policy meeting that concludes on Wednesday.
SPDR
Gold Trust said its holdings fell 8.70 tonnes to 818.90 tonnes – its biggest outflow since Oct 21.
SILVER
Silver moved higher overnight to open at 19.63/19.68. It dipped to a low of 19.61/19.66 and then followed gold to a high of 20.28/20.33 prior to concluding the session at 20.11/20.16.
Silver closed higher at 20.11, but as with gold, the range remains within the range of Thursday’s selloff. Support is at Friday’s low of 19.30, and resistance is at the recent 20.51 high. A break upwards through 20.51 would stabilize silver.
Gold-silver ratio traded lower today at current 62.07. Support is at the recent low of 61.50, with resistance at the 64.26 high from December 4th. We remain bullish the ratio.
Silver gained as investors determined the Federal Reserve may hold off on tapering its USD85 billion in monthly asset purchases until early 2014.
Prices could come under further pressure if Fed decides to taper its $85 billion monthly bond purchases.
Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 23.96 tonnes to 10139.78 tonnes from 10163.74 tonnes.
COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded at USD3.321 a pound during European morning trade, up 0.3%.
Comex copper prices climbed to a session high of USD3.325 a pound earlier, the strongest level since November 1.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.256 a pound, the low from December 11 and resistance at USD3.325 a pound, the high from November 1.
The March contract settled 0.5% higher on Friday to end at USD3.312 a pound.
Data released earlier showed that manufacturing activity in the euro zone expanded at the fastest pace since May 2011 in December.
Market research group Markit said that its preliminary manufacturing purchasing managers’ index inched up to a seasonally adjusted 52.7 this month from a final reading of 51.6 in November. Analysts had expected the index to inch up to 51.9 this month.
Copper futures rose to a six-week high on Monday, following the release of upbeat euro zone manufacturing data, while investors eyed the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting this week.
Copper dropped but downside was limited after release of upbeat euro zone manufacturing data.
Data released earlier showed that manufacturing activity in the euro zone expanded at the fastest pace since May 2011 in December.
Market research group Markit said that its preliminary manufacturing purchasing managers’ index inched up to a seasonally adjusted 52.7 this month.
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in February traded at USD97.54 a barrel, down 0.01%, after hitting a session low of USD96.53 and a high of USD97.92.
ICE Futures Exchange Brent crude for January delivery, which expired at the end of the trading session, rose 1.5% to USD110.47 a barrel, posting its highest settlement since Dec. 6. The more actively traded February contract added 1% to USD109.41 a barrel.
London-based market research group Markit reported earlier that its preliminary U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers’ index declined to a seasonally adjusted 54.4 in December from a final reading of 54.7 in November.
Analysts were expecting the index to rise to 54.9 this month.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported earlier that its Empire State manufacturing index came in at 0.98 in December compared to November's -2.21 reading, though analysts were expecting the index to rise to 4.75.
Crude oil prices traded flat in Asia Tuesday with investors squarely focused on the Federal Reserve after spotty U.S. economic indicators rekindled expectations that the Federal Reserve could hold off on tapering its USD85 billion in monthly asset purchases at a policy meeting this week and wait until early next year.
Crude oil recovered losses boosted by expectations for rising demand from positive European economic data, while supplies from Libya remained sharply curtailed.
The closure of key Libyan oil ports is preventing the export of several hundred thousand bpd of high quality, light crude
China’s November crude oil output inched up 0.36 percent from a year ago to 17.27 million tones.
Global Economic Data
| TIME |
DATA |
PRV |
EXP |
IMPACT |
| 7.00P.M
|
Core CPI m/m |
0.1% |
0.1% |
STRONG |
| 7.00P.M
|
CPI m/m |
-0.1% |
0.1%
|
MEDIUM |
| 8.30P.M
|
NAHB Housing Market Index |
54
|
55 |
MEDIUM |
Core CPI m/m
| Source |
Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release) |
| Measures |
Change in the price of goods and services purchased by
consumers, excluding food and energy; |
| Usual Effect |
Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; |
| Frequency |
Released monthly, about 15 days after the month ends; |
| Next Release |
Jan 16, 2014 |
| FF Notes |
Food and energy prices account for about a quarter of CPI, but
they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend.
The FOMC usually pays the most attention to the Core data - so do
traders; |
Why Traders
Care |
Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation.
Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices
lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for
their inflation containment mandate; |
| Also Called |
CPI Ex Food and Energy, Underlying CPI; |
| Acro Expand |
Consumer Price Index (CPI), Federal Open Market Committee
(FOMC); |
CPI m/m
| Source |
Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release) |
| Measures |
Change in the price of goods and services purchased by
consumers; |
| Usual Effect |
Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; |
| Frequency |
Released monthly, about 15 days after the month ends; |
| Next Release |
Jan 16, 2014 |
Why Traders
Care |
Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation.
Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices
lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for
their inflation containment mandate; |
| Derived Via |
The average price of various goods and services are sampled and
then compared to the previous sampling; |
| Acro Expand |
Consumer Price Index (CPI); |
NAHB Housing Market Index
| Source |
NAHB (latest release) |
| Measures |
Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed home builders; |
| Usual Effect |
Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; |
| Frequency |
Released monthly, around the middle of the current month; |
| Next Release |
Jan 16, 2014 |
| FF Notes |
Above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales, below
indicates a negative outlook; |
| Derived Via |
Survey of about 900 home builders which asks respondents to
rate the relative level of current and future single-family home
sales; |
