Gold Silver Copper Crude: Commodity Technical Outlook

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1232	1219	1254	1263
SILVER	19.60	19.15	20.34	20.64
COPPER	3.3620	3.3480	3.3835	3.3910
CRUDE	96.56	95.64	98.04	98.60

Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

GOLD
Gold moved higher overnight to open at 1236.00/1237.00. It  touched a low of 1233.00/1234.00 following better-than-expected  U.S. manufacturing data. The metal then surged to a high of  1251.50/1252.50 on dollar weakness and gains in crude oil, which  led to short-covering ahead of the FOMC meeting starting  tomorrow. The metal came under selling pressure later in the  afternoon to finally close at 1244.50/1245.50.

Gold made a small gain today, closing at 1244, but the last two  sessions have still traded within Thursday’s range. The metal has  essentially traded sideways since November 21st, within a 1210  (support) and 1268 (resistance) range. The trend remains bearish,  and well away from ‘oversold’ levels.               
Gold ended lower as investors nervously eyed Fed’s last policy meeting to gauge whether the central bank would stick to its monetary stimulus.
Fed policymakers gather for the last time in 2013 for a two-day policy meeting that concludes on Wednesday.
SPDR Gold Trust said its holdings fell 8.70 tonnes to 818.90 tonnes – its biggest outflow since Oct 21.

SILVER
Silver moved higher overnight to open at 19.63/19.68. It dipped to  a low of 19.61/19.66 and then followed gold to a high of  20.28/20.33 prior to concluding the session at 20.11/20.16.
Silver closed higher at 20.11, but as with gold, the range remains  within the range of Thursday’s selloff. Support is at Friday’s low of  19.30, and resistance is at the recent 20.51 high. A break upwards  through 20.51 would stabilize silver.

Gold-silver ratio traded lower today at current 62.07. Support is at  the recent low of 61.50, with resistance at the 64.26 high from  December 4th. We remain bullish the ratio.
Silver gained as investors determined the Federal Reserve may hold off on tapering its USD85 billion in monthly asset purchases until early 2014.
Prices could come under further pressure if Fed decides to taper its $85 billion monthly bond purchases.
Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 23.96 tonnes to 10139.78 tonnes from 10163.74 tonnes.

COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded at USD3.321 a pound during European morning trade, up 0.3%. Comex copper prices climbed to a session high of USD3.325 a pound earlier, the strongest level since November 1.

Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.256 a pound, the low from December 11 and resistance at USD3.325 a pound, the high from November 1.
The March contract settled 0.5% higher on Friday to end at USD3.312 a pound.
Data released earlier showed that manufacturing activity in the euro zone expanded at the fastest pace since May 2011 in December.
Market research group Markit said that its preliminary manufacturing purchasing managers’ index inched up to a seasonally adjusted 52.7 this month from a final reading of 51.6 in November. Analysts had expected the index to inch up to 51.9 this month.
Copper futures rose to a six-week high on Monday, following the release of upbeat euro zone manufacturing data, while investors eyed the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting this week.
Copper dropped but downside was limited after release of upbeat euro zone manufacturing data.
Data released earlier showed that manufacturing activity in the euro zone expanded at the fastest pace since May 2011 in December.
Market research group Markit said that its preliminary manufacturing purchasing managers’ index inched up to a seasonally adjusted 52.7 this month.

CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in February traded at USD97.54 a barrel, down 0.01%, after hitting a session low of USD96.53 and a high of USD97.92.
ICE Futures Exchange Brent crude for January delivery, which expired at the end of the trading session, rose 1.5% to USD110.47 a barrel, posting its highest settlement since Dec. 6. The more actively traded February contract added 1% to USD109.41 a barrel.

London-based market research group Markit reported earlier that its preliminary U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers’ index declined to a seasonally adjusted 54.4 in December from a final reading of 54.7 in November.
Analysts were expecting the index to rise to 54.9 this month.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported earlier that its Empire State manufacturing index came in at 0.98 in December compared to November's -2.21 reading, though analysts were expecting the index to rise to 4.75.
Crude oil prices traded flat in Asia Tuesday with investors squarely focused on the Federal Reserve after spotty U.S. economic indicators rekindled expectations that the Federal Reserve could hold off on tapering its USD85 billion in monthly asset purchases at a policy meeting this week and wait until early next year.
Crude oil recovered losses boosted by expectations for rising demand from positive European economic data, while supplies from Libya remained sharply curtailed.
The closure of key Libyan oil ports is preventing the export of several hundred thousand bpd of high quality, light crude
China’s November crude oil output inched up 0.36 percent from a year ago to 17.27 million tones.

Global Economic Data

TIME	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
7.00P.M	Core CPI m/m	0.1%	0.1%	STRONG
7.00P.M	CPI m/m	-0.1%	0.1%	MEDIUM
8.30P.M	NAHB Housing Market Index	54	55	MEDIUM

Core CPI m/m

Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures	Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 15 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Jan 16, 2014
FF Notes	Food and energy prices account for about a quarter of CPI, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The FOMC usually pays the most attention to the Core data - so do traders;
Why Traders Care	Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate;
Also Called	CPI Ex Food and Energy, Underlying CPI;
Acro Expand	Consumer Price Index (CPI), Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);

CPI m/m

Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures	Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 15 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Jan 16, 2014
Why Traders Care	Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate;
Derived Via	The average price of various goods and services are sampled and then compared to the previous sampling;
Acro Expand	Consumer Price Index (CPI);

NAHB Housing Market Index

Source	NAHB (latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed home builders;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release	Jan 16, 2014
FF Notes	Above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales, below indicates a negative outlook;
Derived Via	Survey of about 900 home builders which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future single-family home sales;