GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE: Overnight Commodity Technical analysis

GOLD

Gold moved lower overnight to open at 1217.50/1218.50, which was also the low of the day. It then came under buying pressure from short-covering and technical buying, surging to a high of 1251.00/1252.00 as world shares fell and despite better-than-expected U.S. new home sales data. 

Thereafter, the metal traded within range for most of the day before closing at 1247.50/1248.50.

Gold had a nice rebound today, finishing higher at 1247 after making a new intraday low. The price action formed an outside day reversal warning. However, as the daily trend remains bearish, the signal would have to be confirmed by an up day tomorrow. Resistance is at Monday’s high of 1252, while support is at the major low of 1180.

Gold had a nice rebound after making a new intraday low despite better-than-expected U.S. new home sales data.

Payroll processing firm ADP said non-farm private employment rose by a seasonally adjusted 215,000 last month.

SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 2.70 tonnes to 838.71 tonnes.

 SILVER 

Silver moved higher overnight to open at 19.20/19.25. It touched a low of 19.13/19.18 before following gold to a high of 19.84/19.89. It closed the session at 19.81/19.86.

Silver outperformed, finishing higher at 19.86, after making a new intraday low. This is also a reversal warning, but only if confirmed by a higher close tomorrow. Support is at the most recent low of 18.90, while resistance is at Monday’s high in the 20.00 level.

The gold-silver ratio had a rough day, dropping to 62.86 from fresh 64.26 highs. This was a potential outside day key reversal, and can be a bearish signal. It would have to be confirmed by a down-day tomorrow. If confirmed, it would open up a retracement to the uptrend support line, which is currently at 59.78.

Silver turned higher after a mixed bag of U.S. economic indicators gave bottom fishers reason to snap up nicely priced positions.

Data howed that U.S. private-sector hiring rose in November at the fastest clip in a year, the services industry expanded at a decent pace last month

Investors worry that strong data could prompt the Fed to begin scaling back its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases as early as this month.

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for March delivery traded at USD3.178 a pound during European morning trade, up 0.3%.

Comex copper prices traded in a range between USD3.159 a pound, the daily low and a session high of USD3.188 a pound.
The March contract settled 0.47% lower on Tuesday to end at USD3.167 a pound.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.158 a pound, the low from December 4 and resistance at USD3.215 a pound, the high from December 2.

Copper futures edged higher on Wednesday, as investors looked ahead to key U.S. economic data later in the day to further gauge the strength of the economy and the need for stimulus.

Copper rose as signs that the U.S. economy was picking up speed bolstered investor interest in the industrial metal.

Concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve may withdraw its commodities-friendly stimulus after robust construction and factory data added to investor caution.

World production of refined copper grew by 6 percent or 788,000 tonnes in the first eight months of the year, compared with year-ago figures – ICSG.

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude futures for delivery in January traded at USD97.03 a barrel, down 0.20%, after hitting an overnight session low of USD96.09 and a high of USD97.53.

ICE Brent crude oil futures for January delivery settled almost three-quarters of a dollar lower at USD111.88 a barrel on Wednesday on expectations that demand will ease for the benchmark as a new pipeline extension bring more supplies to refiners in Texas from domestic-produced oil storage facilities in Oklahoma.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 5.6 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 29, well beyond expectations for a decline of 500,000 barrels.
Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 385.8 million barrels

Crude oil prices eased in Asia on Thursday following a bullish drop in crude stocks in the United States and with support from OPEC's decision to leave production levels steady.

Crude oil gained as government data showed an unexpected fall in U.S. stockpiles in the world’s largest oil consumer.

U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 5.6 million barrels.

OPEC agreed to renew for the first half of 2014 a collective oil production cap of 30 million barrels a day.

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1223	1199	1261	1274
SILVER	19.27	18.77	20.03	20.30
COPPER	3.2225	3.1755	3.2955	3.3195
CRUDE	96.47	95.74	97.75	98.84

Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

Global Economic Data

DATE	TIME	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
05.12.13	7.00P.M	Prelim GDP q/q	2.8%	3.0%	STRONG
05.12.13	7.00P.M	Unemployment Claims	316k	328k	STRONG
05.12.13	8.30P.M	Factory Orders m/m	1.7%	-0.9%	MEDIUM

Prelim GDP q/q

FF Alert	Release date delayed by 9 days due to the US government shutdown;
Source	Bureau of Economic Analysis (latest release)
Measures	Annualized change in the value of all goods and services produced by the economy;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released quarterly, about 60 days after the quarter ends;
Next Release	Feb 28, 2014
FF Notes	While this is q/q data, it's reported in an annualized format (quarterly change x4). The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Advance release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart - Advance, Preliminary, and Final. The Advance release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact;
Why Traders Care	It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health;
Also Called	GDP Second Release;

Unemployment Claims

Source	Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures	The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
Usual Effect	Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Dec 12, 2013
FF Notes	This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;
Why Traders Care	Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy;
Also Called	Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;
Source	Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures	The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;

Factory Orders m/m

Source	Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures	Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 35 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Jan 6, 2014
FF Notes	This report contains a revision of the Durable Goods Orders data released about a week earlier, and fresh data regarding non-durable goods;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of production - rising purchase orders signal that manufacturers will increase activity as they work to fill the orders;
Source	Census Bureau (latest release)
Measures	Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;