GOLD SILVE R COPPER CRUDE Commodity Technical Outlook: 11 Nov

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1275	1259	1305	1325
SILVER	21.07	20.83	21.73	22.14
COPPER	3.2296	3.2053	3.2721	3.2903
CRUDE	94.02	93.45	95.04	95.49

Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

SILVER

Silver opened the day marginally higher at 21.79/21.84, before retreating alongside gold after the nonfarm number. The metal touched a low of 21.25/21.30 and later closed at 21.30/21.35.

 Silver also breached a support level this week, closing at 21.30 and taking out 21.67 in its wake, which was the 50% retracement of the most recent uptrend. Support is at the last major low, 20.49, while 21.67 should now act as resistance. A breach of support at 20.49 opens up a retracement to the 2013 low of 18.23.

Silver dropped after data revealed the U.S. economy picked up more jobs than expected in October, which fueled heavy dollar demand

After strong jobs report, some said it would be unwise to rule out chances Fed could curtail its bond-buying as soon as its next meeting in December.

The U.S. unemployment rate ticked up to 7.3% last month from 7.2% in September, in line with expectations.

GOLD

Gold opened the day unchanged at 1310.00/1311.00, before dropping after a better-than-expected nonfarm report increased speculation that the fed may start reducing stimulus prior to year end. The metal quickly retreated, touching a low of 1280.75/1281.75 prior to concluding the session at 1284.50/1285.50.

 Gold had a bearish week, closing lower at 1285 and breaking support at the Fibonacci convergence area between 1301 and 1307. These levels were the 50% retracement of the long-term (2008 to 2011) uptrend, and 50% retracement of the July to August 2013 uptrends, respectively. This area should now act as resistance, while support comes in at the last major low at 1251. A breach of 1251 would be very bearish, as it would signal that gold’s downtrend off its 1921 high in 2011, is not over. The breach of 1251 opens up the 2013 low of 1180, then 1155, the 61.8% retracement of the long-term uptrend. The 1155 level is the ultimate technical target of the correction of the long-term uptrend.

Gold dropped as surprisingly strong U.S. jobs data raised the prospect that the Federal Reserve may soon decide to temper its bond-buying stimulus.

A flurry of sell orders in heavy volume sent prices lower just minutes after the October nonfarm payrolls data, setting a weaker tone.

U.S. job growth unexpectedly accelerated in October, with employers adding 204,000 jobs, while 60,000 more jobs were created in September.

COPPER

Copper settled up 1.16% rose for the second straight day as a jump in payrolls boosted economic optimism and prospects for demand in the U.S., the world’s second-biggest user of the metal.

Better-than-expected US non-farm payrolls rekindled concerns that the US Fed may wind down QE3 sooner than expected. This drove the US dollar index up, putting a lid on commodity prices. 204,000 jobs were added in US non-farm sector in October, well above the 120,000 forecasted by economists. Job gains for August and September were revised up by a combined 60,000. More than 200,000 jobs were added each month on average during the past three months.

Copper rose on solid imports of the metal into top consumer China and better-than-expected U.S. jobs data, but a resurgent dollar kept gains in check

China’s copper arrivals fell 11.2 percent in October, coming off an 18-month high in the previous month.

Bonded stocks in Shanghai have stayed at a 1-1/2-year low of around 400,000 tonnes over the past month.

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange in electronic trading, light sweet crude futures for delivery in December rose to USD94.71a barrel, up 0.11%, after settling at USD94.60 a barrel on Friday.

The Department of Labor said the U.S. economy added 204,000 jobs in October, much more than the 125,000 increase forecast by economists. September's figure was revised up to 163,000 from a previously reported 148,000.
Crude oil prices rose in early Asian trade on Monday on the demand outlook following better than expected U.S. jobs data last week and solid industrial output in China  reported for October at the weekend as well as September Japanese current account data today.

Crude oil settled up 0.89% after data revealed the U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in October.

China’s crude oil imports in October dropped to a 13-month low, coming off record high purchases in September.

News that Saudi Arabia cut its crude output in October to 9.75 million bpd from 10.1 million in September also helped keep a floor under prices.

Description	US banks will be closed in observance of Veterans Day;
Usual Effect	Low liquidity and irregular volatility;
Next Release	Nov 28, 2013
FF Notes	Most Forex brokers remain open for every holiday except Christmas and New Year's Day. Stock markets and banks have slightly different holiday schedules;
Why Traders Care	Banks facilitate the majority of foreign exchange volume. When they are closed the market is less liquid and speculators become a more dominant market influence. This can lead to both abnormally low and abnormally high volatility;
Description	US banks will be closed in observance of Veterans Day;
Usual Effect	Low liquidity and irregular volatility;
Next Release	Nov 28, 2013