GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE Commodity technical Outlook: 6th Nov

Technical Levels

Commodity	Support 1	Support 2	Resistance 1	Resistance 2
GOLD	1302	1295	1314	1326
SILVER	21.53	21.43	21.76	21.89
COPPER	3.2421	3.2258	3.2756	3.2928
CRUDE	92.66	91.95	94.49	95.61

Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

GOLD

Gold edged higher overnight, opening at 1317.50/1318.50, before retreating to a low of 1305.25/1306.25 following a better-than-expected ISM non-manufacturing number. A modest recovery as the dollar reversed left the metal to close at 1308.00/1309.00. 

Gold is closing at $1,309. The metal has seen a "lower high" for the past daily 6 consecutive trading sessions. A fresh November low today near $1305 keeps the market risk to the down side. We believe the market is selling Gold on any bounce while it remains below $1,330 former pivot. We do not expect a deep leg lower while 61.8% Fibo $1,294 holds. Below this level opens up $1,252 (not favored).

Gold eased pressured by a retreat in the euro ahead of a key ECB meeting later this week, and as investors awaited fresh clues on U.S. monetary policy.

Investors are also awaiting U.S. non-farm payrolls data on Friday for clues on when Fed will taper its quantitative easing programme.

Premiums in China, which is poised to take over from India, recovered slightly this week but have not seen a big jump.

SILVER

Silver opened unchanged at 21.69/21.74, before marginally improving to an intraday high of 21.71/21.76. The metal retreated alongside gold, touching a low of 21.58/21.63 prior to concluding the session at 21.60/21.65. 

Silver is closing at $21.65. The metal has registered lower lows the past 4 trading days in move that has come from 23.06 to 21.58. Key 61.8% Fibo support is seen at 21.49. The price action in Silver is very disappointing. This is reflected in the Gold Silver ratio which has moved up as high as 60.72 yesterday (currently 60.46). Resistance is seen at 61.02 and 62.14 from October highs. Solid support is now seen at 58.85.

Silver ended lower as ongoing uncertainty over the direction of U.S. monetary policy kept investors in a cautious mood.

Service sector activity in the U.S. grew at a faster rate than expected in October, easing concerns over the economic outlook.

Comments by top Fed officials showed that a cut-back in the stimulus was not imminent.

COPPER

On the Comex division of the New YorkMercantile Exchange, copper futures for December delivery traded at USD3.260 a pound during European morning trade, up 0.2%. 

Copper prices traded in a range between USD3.253 a pound, the session low and a daily high of USD3.276 a pound.
The December contract fell to USD3.247 a pound on Monday, the weakest level since October 29, before settling at USD3.253 a pound, down 1.38%.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.246 a pound, the low from October 29 and resistance at USD3.308 a pound, the high from November 4.

Copper futures traded near a two-week low on Tuesday, as investors looked ahead to key U.S. jobs data later in the week as well as a meeting of China’s top party officials this weekend.

Copper recovered from lows to end with gains as recent economic data added to signs of a recovery in the world’s biggest user of the metal.

U.S. is set to release preliminary data on third quarter economic growth, while October’s highly-anticipated nonfarm payrolls report is scheduled for Friday.

Copper traders also looked ahead to an important Communist Party meeting in China later in the week.

CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for December delivery rose 0.41% to USD93.75 per barrel in Asian trading Wednesday. The December contract settled lower by 1.32% at USD93.02 per barrel on Tuesday. 

 

Oil futures came under pressure Tuesday after the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, will release its inventories report later in the day, while Wednesday’s government report could show crude stockpiles rose by 1.8 million barrels, which sent prices falling on Tuesday.

The inventories data had traders overlooking a decent economic data point out of the U.S., the world’s largest oil consumer.

Oil futures traded higher during Wednesday’s Asian session as traded did some bargain hunting with crude following some concerning inventories data.

Crude oil dropped pressured by forecasts for rising supplies and continued weak demand as Gulf Coast refineries were expected to remain offline at least through the end of this week

Crude inventories climbed 871,000 barrels in the week to Nov. 1 to 382 million barrels, data from API showed

Today crude oil inventories: EXP: 1.7M PREV: 4.1M. Actual is at 9.00PM

Global Economic Data

Time	Data	Prv	Exp	Impact
6.00 pm	Challenger Job Cuts y/y	19.1%	0.6%	LOW
8.30 pm	CB Leading Index m/m	0.7%	0.7%	LOW
9.00 pm	Crude Oil Inventories	4.1M	1.7M	MEDIUM

Challenger Job Cuts y/y

FF Alert	Release date delayed by 6 days due to the US government shutdown;
Source	Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. (latest release)
Measures	Change in the number of job cuts announced by employers;
Usual Effect	Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 3 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Dec 5, 2013
FF Notes	It's extremely early data, but historically has limited short-term correlation with overall labor conditions;
Also Called	Job Cut Announcements;

CB Leading Index m/m

FF Alert	Release date delayed by 19 days due to the US government shutdown;
Source	The Conference Board Inc. (latest release)
Measures	Change in the level of a composite index based on 10 economic indicators;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 20 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Nov 27, 2013
FF Notes	This index is designed to predict the direction of the economy, but it tends to have a muted impact because most of the indicators used in the calculation are released previously. Source changed series calculation formula as of Jan 2012;

Crude Oil Inventories

Source	Energy Information Administration (latest release)
Measures	Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week;
Usual Effect	No consistent effect - there are both inflationary and growth implications;
Frequency	Released weekly, 4 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Nov 13, 2013
FF Notes	While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada's sizable energy sector;
Why Traders Care	It influences the price of petroleum products which affects inflation, but also impacts growth as many industries rely on oil to produce goods;
Also Called	Crude Stocks, Crude Levels;
Acro Expand	Energy Information Administration (EIA);