Gold, Silver, Copper & Crude Commodity Technical Outlook: 17 Oct

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1273	1263	1287	1302
SILVER	21.17	20.98	21.50	21.63
COPPER	3.2713	3.2346	3.3368	3.3656
CRUDE	101.03	99.78	103.25	104.22

Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

GOLD
Gold opened  at 1280.25/1281.25 and dropped to a low of 1268.75/1269.75 by  midday. Despite higher equities, the metal rallied in the afternoon  to peak at 1282.75/1283.75 on short covering, before closing near  the high, at 1282.00/1283.00.
Gold traded nearly unchanged today, closing at 1282, and  invalidating yesterday’s potential hammer. Support is at the recent  1251 low, and resistance lies between 1301 and 1307, where two  Fibonacci retracement levels converge (1301 is the 50%  retracement of the 2008 to 2011 uptrend, 1307 is the 50%  retracement of the June-August uptrend.) The target on a bearish  head-and-shoulders pattern is around 1108.
Gold gained as U.S. lawmakers scrambled to come up with a bipartisan agreement to increase the federal debt ceiling before a Thursday deadline.
Gold premiums in India hit a record $100 an ounce due to a shortage of supplies to meet festival demand.
SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 3.6 tonnes to 885.53 tonnes.
SILVER
Silver held up as well, trading higher for the session. Price opened  at 21.18/21.23 and touched a low of 21.10/21.15 in early morning.  Price recovered in the afternoon alongside gold to a high of  21.41/21.46, before closing the day at 21.35/21.40.
Silver was also nearly unchanged today at 21.35, invalidating  yesterday’s potential bullish hammer. The past 3 sessions have  been “spinning tops”, i.e., candles with little to no difference  between the open and the close. This is a sign of indecision in the  markets. Support is at 19.85, the 76.4% retracement of the last  rally, with resistance at 21.67, the 50% retracement level. 
The gold-silver ratio continues to drift slightly higher, currently at  60.06. The ratio is overdue for a breakout, as we have seen the  last 7 sessions trade inside of the October 7th session in the  candlestick charts. The ratio is gaining in bullish momentum;  though remains within a consolidation.
Silver rose as markets continued to focus on U.S. budget talks amid growing fears of a potential sovereign default.
Ratings agency Fitch placed its triple-A rating on U.S. on “rating watch negative”, saying political impasse has undermined confidence in U.S. economic policy.
Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 53.95 tonnes to 10391.35 tonnes from 10445.30 tonnes.
COPPER
Copper prices fell to a session low of USD3.266 a pound earlier in the day. The December contract settled 0.14% higher at USD3.307 a pound on Tuesday.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.244 a pound, the low from October 14 and resistance at USD3.315 a pound, the high from October 14.
On Tuesday, Fitch ratings agency placed its AAA-rating on the U.S. on “rating watch negative” and said a downgrade is possible.
Copper futures fell sharply on Wednesday, as the U.S. moved closer to a deadline to raise the national debt ceiling or risk default.
Copper fell as the U.S. moved closer to a deadline to raise the national debt ceiling or risk default.
Fitch ratings agency placed its AAA-rating on the U.S. on “rating watch negative” and said a downgrade is possible.
Trade data showed that inbound Chinese copper shipments totaled 457,847 metric tons last month, the highest since March 2012.
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for November delivery inched down 0.01% to USD102.28 per barrel in Asian trading Thursday. The November contract settled higher by 1.07% at USD102.29 per barrel on Wednesday.
Oil prices were supported he Federal Reserve reported in its Beige Book, which analyzes current economic conditions, that the U.S. economy expanded at a moderate pace from September into October, though the U.S. central bank said fiscal uncertainty was dampening recovery.
Oil futures traded slightly lower during Thursday Asian session despite news the U.S. Senate has reached a debt deal that will reopen the government there and avert a debt ceiling debacle.
Crude oil gains as it appeared Congress was close to an 11th-hour deal to raise the government’s debt ceiling and prevent a default.
Crude oil stocks rose 5.9 million barrels, data from American Petroleum Institute showed, more than double the forecast for a 2.2 million barrel.
Oil traders continued to monitor talks between Western diplomats and Iranian officials in Geneva.

Global Economic Data

Time	Data	Prv	Exp	impact
6.00 pm	Unemployment Claims	374K	357K	STRONG
7.30 pm	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index	22.3	15.4	STRONG
10.15 pm	FOMC Member Evans Speaks			MEDIUM
10.15 pm	FOMC Member George Speaks			MEDIUM

Unemployment Claims

Source	Department of Labor (latest release)
Measures	The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week;
Usual Effect	Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Oct 24, 2013
FF Notes	This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes;
Why Traders Care	Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions;
Also Called	Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

Source	Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia(latest release)
Measures	Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;
Next Release	Nov 21, 2013
FF Notes	Above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment;
Acro Expand	Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);