Gold, Silver, Copper & Crude Commodity Technical Outlook: 21st Oct

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1312	1301	1328	1333
SILVER	21.29	20.64	22.39	22.84
COPPER	3.2890	3.2706	3.3180	3.3285
CRUDE	100.60	99.97	102.14	103.07

Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

 GOLD
Precious metals held steady today, holding on to yesterday’s gains, as  equities and USD both traded flat. Gold opened at 1317.50/1318.50  and traded to a high of 1320.50/1321.50 early on. Price touched a  low of 1311.50/1312.50 in the afternoon, shortly before closing the  week at 1313.50/1314.50.
Gold closed higher this week at 1314, forming a bullish engulfing  pattern in the candlestick charts. A bullish engulfing pattern also (in  hindsight) predicted the move off the low in June at 1180, prior to its  move up to the 1433 high. The next resistance is at 1337, which is  the 38.2% retracement of the last rally. Support is at the week’s low  of 1251. The bullish pattern is an encouraging sign that the bear  channel of the past 2 months may be about to turn, though it is still  early.
Gold climbed to the Life time High as Rupee dropped and political tension over Syria increased demand for the precious metal as a store of value.
Western powers told the Syrian opposition to expect a strike against Syria President Bashar al-Assad’s forces within days.
SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, said its holdings rose 0.10 percent, or 0.90 tonnes, to 921.03 tonnes.
SILVER

Silver opened at 21.89/21.94 and traded to a high of 22.02/22.07  early in the session. The metal held flat for the remainder of the  session, with a low at 21.83/21.88, and closing at 21.88/21.93.
Silver also closed higher this week in a bullish engulfing pattern,  closing at 21.93. The RSI pattern in silver is also encouraging, as it  tested and held the low-40 area. Following technical analyst  Constance Brown, RSI should travel from around 40 to around 80 in a  bull market. Silver’s RSI bottomed at 19.20, moved higher, then  tested and held the 40 level. The next resistance in silver is at 22.48,  the 38.2% retracement of the June to August rally. Support is at the  weekly low at 20.50. Similar to gold, silver is making early signs of  having turned, which should be confirmed with a breach of the next  resistance level.
The gold-silver ratio closed lower this week at 60.12, trading inside  the last week. The ratio has been making higher lows since the  October low of 58.94, but has yet to break out of its 2-month  consolidation. We still see the risk as lower, but will have to wait for  a breakout to get a better sense of the immediate direction.
Silver rose as weakness in rupee supported amid growing speculation the U.S. was moving closer to taking military action against Syria’s government.
An early end to stimulus could hurthankst precious metals by drawing investors away from non-interest-bearing assets.
Holdings at ishares silver trust gained by 44.99 tonnes to 10600.69 tonnes from 10555.70 tonnes.
COPPER
Copper prices fell to a session low of USD3.304 a pound earlier in the day.
Copper settled up 4.34% after reports showed gains in US home prices and Chinese industrial profits, adding to signs of improving demand in the world’s two biggest users of the metal. While support seen from the rupee weakness which closed at a fresh all-time low of 66.24 against the US dollar it was the worst percentage fall in over a decade.
Copper crossed 500 mark as support seen due to weakness in rupee while a potential western strike on Syria made investor bets more cautious.
The economy of China is showing clear signs of stabilisation, helped by policy support and some improvement in global demand
In the US, recent data on durable goods, single family home sales and business spending on capital goods have been disappointing.
CRUDE

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for December delivery were flat at USD101.12 per barrel in Asian trading Monday. The December contract settled higher by 0.24% at USD101.11 per barrel last Friday.
Last week, New York-traded oil futures lost 0.4%, the fifth loss in the past six weeks. Oil futures were likely to find support at USD100.21 a barrel, the low from October 17 and resistance at USD103.15 a barrel, the high from October 16.
Later Monday, the U.S. releases new home sales data and on Tuesday, the Labor Department reveals the September non-farm payrolls, two reports that could be pivotal for oil traders over the near-term. The September jobs data was delayed because of the U.S. government shutdown.
Oil futures were little changed during Monday’s Asian session ahead of what could potentially be a big week for U.S. economic data releases. The U.S. is the world’s largest oil consumer.
Crude oil gained as tensions mounted in Syria, heightening geopolitical and crude oil supply risk in the Middle East.
Crude oil prices were also boosted as protesters stopped production at oil fields in Western Libya.
U.S. crude stocks rose last week while gasoline inventories declined and distillate stocks increased, API data showed.

Global Economic Data

TIME	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
5.30pm	FOMC Member Evans Speaks			Medium
7.30pm	Existing Home Sales	5.48M	5.31M	Strong
8.00pm	Crude Oil Inventories	6.8M	3.4M	Medium

FOMC Member Evans Speaks

Description	Due to speak in a CNBC interview;
Source	Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (latest release)
Speaker	Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans;
Usual Effect	More hawkish than expected = Good for currency;
FF Notes	FOMC voting member Sep 2007 - Dec 2007, 2009, 2011 and 2013;
Why Traders Care	Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;
Acro Expand	Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);
Description	Due to speak in a CNBC interview;

Existing Home Sales

Source	National Association of Realtors (latest release)
Measures	Annualized number of residential buildings that were sold during the previous month, excluding new construction;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 20 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Nov 20, 2013
FF Notes	While this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12). Existing homes make up the majority of total sales and therefore tend to have more impact than New Home Sales;
Why Traders Care	It's a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, renovations are done by the new owners, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction;
Also Called	Home Resales;

Crude Oil Inventories

Source	Energy Information Administration (latest release)
Measures	Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week;
Usual Effect	No consistent effect - there are both inflationary and growth implications;
Frequency	Released weekly, 4 days after the week ends;
Next Release	Oct 23, 2013
FF Notes	While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada's sizable energy sector;
Why Traders Care	It influences the price of petroleum products which affects inflation, but also impacts growth as many industries rely on oil to produce goods;
Also Called	Crude Stocks, Crude Levels;
Acro Expand	Energy Information Administration (EIA);