Gold, Silver, Copper, Crude Commodity Technical Outllok: 22nd Oct

Technical Levels

	SUPPORT 1	SUPPORT 2	RESISTANCE 1	RESISTANCE 2
GOLD	1311	1301	1328	1333
SILVER	21.97	21.67	22.45	22.93
COPPER	3.2865	3.2695	3.3160	3.3285
CRUDE	98.48	97.74	99.75	100.70

Commodity Contract S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 

GOLD
Gold traded flat on the day. The metal opened the week at  1315.00/1316.00, touched a low of 1313.50/1314.50 early on,  before trading to a high of 1319.50/1320.50. Price consolidated as  equities and USD both held steady, closing the day at  1316.00/1317.00
Gold closed at 1,316 today. This is our third day closing around the  current levels. The critical topside level remains 1,330 from high  two weeks ago. We believe a close above this level on the weekly  chart will bring in fresh buying looking for a move back toward  1433. We see close support at 1,304 from break of two month  bear channel (line today comes in at 1,297). While the metal closes  above that line we see the risk of a break to the topside.
Gold rose supported by expectations Fed would hold off curbing its economic stimulus while US eyes a more lasting fix to its budget problems.
The U.S. budget deal last week extends the U.S. government’s borrowing authority through Feb. 7 and restores federal funding through Jan. 15
Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, fell 10.51 tonnes to 871.72 tonnes on Monday — its biggest fall since early July.
SILVER
Silver was higher overnight, opening today at 22.16/22.21 and  trading to a brief low of 22.08/22.13. The metal advanced to a  high of 22.31/22.36 by midmorning, amid quiet equities, before  closing at 22.25/22.30, up from last Friday’s close.
Silver made a nice move higher to close at 22.25. The October high  of 22.48 is in sight. It is interesting that the metal bounced  aggressively last week off of key technical support 20.60. A break  of 22.48 would confirm a "Double Bottom" is in place. Measured  move target would be 24.36.
Gold Silver ratio broke a key trend line support at 59.54 and has  fallen to current 59.18. We have been bearish this ratio waiting for  this move. We see fresh selling on a break of October low 59.05  with first stop the August low of 57.12. We are bearish the ratio  while it holds below Fridays high of 60.36.
Silver rose as concerns over the impact of 16-day shutdown fuelled expectations that Fed would delay plans for rolling back its asset purchase program
Investors were awaiting key U.S. data points later in the week in order to determine the impact of the government shutdown on the Fed’s stimulus program.
The central bank is scheduled to meet October 29-30 to review the economy and assess policy.
COPPER
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for December delivery traded at USD3.307 a pound during European morning trade, up 0.25%.
Copper prices traded in a range between USD3.282 a pound, the daily low and a session high of USD3.311 a pound. The December contract settled 0.06% higher at USD3.299 a pound on Friday.
Copper prices were likely to find support at USD3.271 a pound, the low from October 17 and resistance at USD3.325 a pound, the high from October 16.
Copper futures inched higher on Monday, as investors shifted their focus from the resolution of the U.S. government showdown to the duration of the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying program.
Copper inched up as investors shifted their focus from the resolution of U.S. government showdown to the duration of Fed bond-buying program.
China’s refined copper imports in September hit a 19-month high, surging by 32% MoM, and 18% YoY.
China’s economy expanded at an annual rate of 7.8% in the third quarter, in line with expectations and up from 7.5% in the three months to June.
CRUDE
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for December delivery fell 0.13% to USD99.55 per barrel in Asian trading Tuesday. The December contract settled lower by 1.41% at USD99.68 per barrel on Monday.
Oil was hampered by Monday by data that showed an increase in oil inventories. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 4 million barrels in the week ended October 4, well above expectations for an increase of 2.2 million barrels.
Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 374.5 million barrels, the highest level since July. The report also showed that total motor gasoline inventories declined by 2.6 million barrels, compared to expectations for an increase of 0.1 million barrels.
Oil futures traded lower during Tuesday’s Asian session, continuing a bearish tone set in Monday trade.
Crude oil dropped after official data revealed that U.S. crude supplies rose more than expected.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 4 million barrels
Saudi Arabia increased its oil exports by 325,000 bpd in August from July to 7.795 million bpd, official data showed.

Global Economic Data

TIME	DATA	PRV	EXP	IMPACT
6.00pm	Non-Farm Employment Change	169K	182K	STRONG
6.00pm	Unemployment Rate	7.3%	7.3%	STRONG
6.30pm	TIC Long-Term Purchase	31.1B	30.9B	MEDIUM
8.00pm	Natural Gas Storage	90B	81B	LOW

Non-Farm Employment Change

FF Alert	Release date delayed by 18 days due to the US government shutdown;
Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures	Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends;
Next Release	Nov 8, 2013
FF Notes	This is vital economic data released shortly after the month ends. The combination of importance and earliness makes for hefty market impacts;
Why Traders Care	Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;

Unemployment Rate

FF Alert	Release date delayed by 18 days due to the US government shutdown;
Source	Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release)
Measures	Percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month;
Usual Effect	Actual < Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends;
Next Release	Nov 8, 2013
Why Traders Care	Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions;
Also Called	Jobless Rate

TIC Long-Term Purchase

FF Alert	Release date delayed by 6 days due to the US government shutdown;
Source	Department of the Treasury (latest release)
Measures	Difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by US citizens and US long-term securities purchased by foreigners during the reported period;
Usual Effect	Actual > Forecast = Good for currency;
Frequency	Released monthly, about 45 days after the month ends;
Next Release	Nov 15, 2013
FF Notes	This data represents the balance of domestic and foreign investment - for example, if foreigners purchased $100 billion in US stocks and bonds, and the US purchased $30 billion in foreign stocks and bonds, the net reading would be 70.0B. The market impact tends to be significant but varies from month to month;
Why Traders Care	Demand for domestic securities and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to purchase the nation's securities;
Also Called	Net Long-term Securities Transactions;